As the fifth tight end off the board in half-PPR redraft, Dalton Kincaid is currently the 51st player off the board according to ADP gathered from FantasyPros. This puts Kincaid right after the 4-5 turn in drafts and is coming just after TE3 Mark Andrews and TE4 Trey McBride, signaling that Kincaid is at the tail end of a short run on tier-2 tight ends. With an early 5th-round draft capital, Kincaid is 31 picks behind his QB, Josh Allen. An investment into the top fantasy options in Buffalo can leave drafters vulnerable at other positions. Still, the gap between top-tier TEs and QBs is increasingly growing, providing an edge in fantasy for those willing to take the risk.
Dalton Kincaid Past Performance
Buffalo selected Kincaid with the 25th overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft, making him the first TE off the board. History tells us that rookie tight ends rarely make a significant year-1 impact. The trend probably isn’t bucked from a one-year sample in which Kincaid and 2023 second-round TE, Sam LaPorta, both made a major immediate impact. As a rookie, Kincaid hauled in 73 passes on 91 looks for 673 yards and a pair of touchdowns, finishing as the TE12 in half-PPR and the TE11 in PPR. No tight end finished better than Kincaid with as few touchdowns.
On the season, 2023 was not spectacular as a whole. However, Kincaid’s numbers are particularly encouraging toward the second half of the season, when the rookie was able to break out, thanks to an injury to teammate Dawson Knox that opened the door for the young talent. Once a top fantasy target in his own right, Knox has been completely pushed aside in fantasy drafts, cratering to TE26 at pick 218 overall. Not only did Kincaid completely dust Knox, but he also led the team in targets from weeks 8 to 12. That includes eclipsing Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, two teammates no longer wearing Bills’ uniforms in ’24.
Dalton Kincaid 2024 Projections
FantasyPros currently projects Kincaid for 82.4 catches for 822.8 yards and 5.4 TDs while ESPN projects 75-727-4. While ESPN is more pessimistic than the FantasyPros expert consensus rankings, both sites are in line with the market’s TE5 ADP. These projections are a bit surprising. Having earned 91 looks as a rookie, neither of these sites is particularly bullish on an increase in targets even with the departure of Diggs and Davis.
There should be zero expectation that Kincaid could lift into a hyper-concentrated target hog ala Diggs, who has earned over 150 targets in each of his four seasons as a Bill. A field stretcher operating in a much different role, Davis had a career-high 93 targets in 2022 and 81 in 2023.
Kincaid will not replace the targets of the wide receivers, but with the current shape of the depth chart, it is going to be a neck-and-neck race between Kincaid and 2024 2nd-round rookie selection, Keon Coleman for who earns the most targets from Allen. Never in his career has Allen made a tight end his top target, and it has not been particularly close. Historically, Allen and the Bills have targeted their top running back about as often as their top TE. Diggs was an entirely different animal, soaking up as much as 30% of a team’s targets.
Knox has a slight edge in target projections over Coleman. He will not likely absorb the insane targets that Travis Kelce can, but being the team leader on a Bills offense is extremely coveted. As well, we should expect positive touchdown regression in both Allen and Kincaid’s favor. As a season-long starter, 2023 was Allen’s 2nd worst year in passing TDs. On the DraftKings sportsbook, the Bills are even money as a 10.5-win team and even with the Jets for division winners.
Final Thoughts on Dalton Kincaid
Vegas has changed a little in the overall team projection from 2023 to 2024. This will be a winning team, a conference contender, led by fantasy football’s year-over-year best QB. Chances are good that Knox will be the target leader, and his TDs are only going up. Most sites’ projections are conservative with Kincaid’s projections, hardly moving the needle higher in total targets even with less receiving competition. Having a top tight end is an incredible advantage in redraft. There is every reason to expect that Kincaid is a set-and-forget TE, although there are stronger options in both floor and ceiling at the position.
At ADP, Dalton Kincaid is a value, but not worth reaching in the 4th for, and is firmly behind McBride and Andrews. An Allen drafter may be tempted to reach to complete the stack, but Allen gets so much work done on the ground that the stacking potential is mitigated. However, the further down you get on the TE draft board, the more urgent that need becomes, and nobody should want to be starving at this position. Not having a top-5 TE is a bad idea.
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