Courtland Sutton was a valuable piece in fantasy, especially late in the year because the passing game in Denver managed to get consistent play late and Sutton was the spearhead of it. But the Denver Broncos offense in 2024 is going to look a lot different no matter what because the QB position is one of the huge weaknesses of this team in head coach Sean Payton’s second season.
Payton is likely to trot out the 12th overall pick in Bo Nix to start, and even though Nix was great at Oregon under Dan Lanning last year, he’s not ready to turn around this Denver Offense to get back to a Peyton Manning type of passing game. So Sutton is going to be a casualty that fantasy owners should avoid as a strong starter each week.
Sutton could provide some depth if you fill your roster with great WRs first before you consider drafting him. Let’s look at Cortland Sutton’s numbers from last year to see how sneaky good he was in 2023.
Courtland Sutton 2023 Production
Sutton had 59 receptions for 772 yards and a career best 10 touchdown catches in 2023, which was the main reason he had value in 2023 was the ability to find the end zone that many times. Fantasy Pros had Sutton as the WR 33 last season, their metrics had him at 12th in red zone targets but he was 39th in target share and 37th in yards per route run last year meaning he was a red zone merchant in fantasy.
While it is possible that his numbers could continue to shine in the red zone because of his frame, it is unlikely that a rookie quarterback is going to get him the ball consistently enough in those tight spaces needed. The concerning numbers of target shares and yards per route run are going to show up again most likely in 2024, speaking of 2024 let us look at the projections and see why his numbers are going to tank.
Courtland Sutton 2024 Projections
Courtland Sutton, according to ESPN’s projections, will have 71 receptions for 898 yards and five touchdowns for 189.27 points for a WR 45 ranking on ESPN. They do acknowledge that the Jerry Jeudy trade to Cleveland in the offseason is going to open the targets up more for Sutton as the clear no.1 option in Denver now, but the strong dip in touchdowns is what is going to kill his value big time. Going from 10 to five is a sign that the quarterback play won’t be consistent enough for a high-end value play. ESPN has him as a WR3 value with these numbers.
Meanwhile, Fantasy Pros has him as the WR43 in their ECR ratings with the 30th easiest schedule in 2024. Fantasy Pros projections have Sutton with 63 receptions, 806 yards, and six touchdowns for 176 points. Fantasy Pros has one more touchdown credited to him than ESPN does but it’s a similar premise as before, you’re not seeing ten touchdowns from Sutton this season for sure.
Final Thoughts
Courtland Sutton is a talented receiver in this league and he’ll have a good year as the Denver Broncos No.1 option in 2024, but there’s so much more value in the 2024 fantasy drafts that I would personally not take Sutton until the eighth round at least because of the trials and tribulations of dealing with the No. 12 draft pick Nix’s rookie struggles most of the year. He has a WR 3 grade, but he would be a WR 4 in my book because of the lack of the big play potential there with him.
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