The Kings broke their three-game losing streak with a win in Charlotte and look to keep that momentum as they travel to Cleveland to face the Cavaliers. The Eastern Conference’s one-seeded Cavaliers continue dominating, winning four of the last five. Refreshingly, the injury report is sparse for April. Bit player Jake LaRavia is out, with Keegan Murray, Ty Jerome, and Dean Wade questionable. The -10.5 line hints the Kings may be without their starting Power Forward Murray, so our analysis assumes he is on the bench. Let’s jump into Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em.
Cavaliers vs. Kings DFS Start ‘Em
A player from each team receives a fantasy bump when the injury bug bites.
Trey Lyles (DK: $3,000, FD: NA)
When Keegan Murray sits, Trey Lyles shines. On New Year’s Day, Lyles’s role supersized, and he played 31 minutes, scoring 28.75 DK points (FD: 27.40). This price is low for his season average and does not account for the bump he gets in this scenario. Keon Ellis should move into the starting lineup, but Lyles should come in halfway through the first quarter. He will also get run in the fourth quarter, with or without a blowout, increasing the confidence of this play.
Fantasy Point Goal: 18. Total Apex Projection: 24
Isaac Okoro (DK: $1,200, FD: NA)
Okoro’s minutes are safe but inconsistent. He is guaranteed playing time regardless of the injury report, but receives a bump when Wade is out. In the last two games without Wade, Okoro played 23 and 20 minutes, respectively. His .65 Fantasy Points Per Minute is wretched, but with 21 minutes of playing time, he receives ceiling potential. An additional bonus is that Okoro gets minutes regardless of whether Wade is in or out.
Fantasy Point Goal: 9. Total Apex Projection: 14.25
Cavaliers vs. Kings DFS Sit ‘Em
On the flip side, here are a few of the players we are sitting in this one. While it does say to sit, remember that fading a player entirely is not recommended. When we sit a player, it means underweight on their ownership compared to the field.
Malik Monk (DK: $8,000, FD: NA)
When Murray is out, Keon Ellis moves into the starting five. This may work for the Kings as a team, but it hurts Monk’s fantasy output. The last time Sacramento ran this rotation, Monk ended with 32.5 DK points (FD: 32.4), well under his salary expectations. Cleveland only gives up an average of 47.90 points to the point guard position per game for a 4th best defense in the league in that department. This combination does not bode well for Monk.
Fantasy Point Goal: 40. Total Apex Projection: 32
Jarrett Allen (DK: $7,800, FD: NA)
The Big Man plays a pivotal role but struggles to hit his ceiling when Mobley is on the floor. In the past three games with Mobley in and Jerome/Wade out, he scored 13 (injured in-game), 34, and 36.5. What is mind-blowing is that all of those games had the Cavaliers favored by 10. We can forecast that his point output will be similar to the last three.
Fantasy Point Goal: 38. Total Apex Projection: 32
Total Apex Lock of the Game
Domantas Sabonis ($10,600, FD: NA)
Thanks to a well-rounded skill set, Sabonis plays the game like a 2K player. He rarely takes over in the scoring department, but he can top 20 and facilitate/rebound with the best of them. Donavon Mitchell was almost the play here, but Sabonis has an edge in the sportsbook’s Points, Rebounds, and assists by 2. Sabonis PRA: 37.5. Mitchell PRA: 35.5.
Fantasy Point Goal: 53. Total Apex Projection: 54
Total Apex Fade of the Game
Keon Ellis (DK: $5,000, FD: NA)
The argument against Ellis is the same as that against Monk: The Cavaliers are too good at defending opposing guards to play in DFS. Ellis is also going through a cooler, scoring only 8, 13.3, and 21.8 DK points over the last three. His ownership projection comes in at around 20%. I am maxing out three different 20-max tournaments and will cap his exposure to 5% to avoid this pitfall.
Fantasy Point Goal: 30. Total Apex Projection: 20.Â
Conclusion for Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
You have to be different to take down GPP tournaments in Showdown. You must create a unique data set with such a small player field and many DFS players using optimizers/sims. Adjust ownership based on this analysis so you can come out on top.
