The 10-7 Denver Broncos travel to Buffalo to take on the powerhouse 13-4 Bills, as MVP candidate Josh Allen will take on rookie Bo Nix on Sunday. In his first season, Sean Payton and his rookie signal caller will have a daunting task as the away underdog. The game may be closer than the line suggests, as the Bills defense has been exploitable this season. The Bronco’s offense is coming off a hot finish against the Kansas City Chiefs backups in week 18. They are clicking at the right time, while Buffalo’s offense will need to strike early against one of the best defenses with Denver to maintain a lead.
Broncos vs. Bills DFS Start ‘Ems
Here are a few of the players that we are leaning on heavily in this game. These players are in a good spot to put together a solid performance and have a favorable matchup.
James Cook ($6.7K DraftKings; $8K Fanduel)
While Josh Allen is a lock to get multiple touchdowns, James Cook is the featured back and has 16 rushing touchdowns on the year. The star running back also has 2 receiving touchdowns on the year, and despite them mixing in Ty Johnson and rookie Ray Davis, Cook can break away with an explosive run. He has over 1,000 yards on the ground and is a key cog in the Bills offense.
Marvin Mims ($5.1K DraftKings; $5.9K Fanduel)
Over the last two weeks, Marvin Mims has turned it on with 4 touchdowns as the second-leading receiver next to Courtland Sutton. The deep threat has profited off of big plays and with the attention given to Sutton, there’s a chance Mims blows by the Bills secondary. Nix has been eager to take shots down the field and even with the cold temperatures, it wouldn’t surprise me if he catches a deep pass or two. With his salary, he is worth the shot in most DFS lineups for this game compared to Sutton.
Broncos vs. Bills DFS Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side of things, here are a few of the players we are sitting in this one.
Dalton Kincaid ($4K DraftKings; $5.7K Fanduel)
The Bills tight end just hasn’t been involved with Buffalo’s offense spread out. With most of the targets going to Khalil Shakir, alongside Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid is an afterthought in Joe Brady’s offense. It would be a way better play to take the dart throw on one of their receivers than tight ends in Buffalo for DFS.
Adam Trautman ($2.6K DraftKings; $4.3K Fanduel)
Unless Adam Trautman catches a touchdown, even at a lower salary, it is not worth playing the Broncos tight end in DFS lineups. As of late, most of the receiving production has come from their wide receivers, as Denver has had more success through the air rather than on the ground.
Total Apex Lock of the Game
Josh Allen ($8.2K DraftKings; $8.9K Fanduel)
Despite his price, this is an obvious play even against a top defense. Josh Allen has basically all the rushing and passing equity in this offense. They may lean on him to win this game if their defense doesn’t show against a young but trending offense with the Broncos.
Total Apex Fade of the Game
Bo Nix ($6.3K DraftKings; $7.5K Fanduel)
Although Bo Nix has been red hot as of late, it is tough to trust a rookie in his first playoff start. Head coach Payton may try to run a bit more early with his trio of running backs depending on the flow of the game. Limiting takeaways and ball control will be key if the Broncos want to pull off the upset against the Bills. Even at his reduced salary, Nix will have to be efficient through the air and in the red zone for him to pay off. Buffalo still has an above-average pass rush and could get home vs. Denver’s solid offensive line.
Conclusion
The spread is -8.5 favoring the home team in Buffalo. However, the away team in Denver has a chance to shock the NFL if they manage to pull off an upset to one of the best teams in the AFC. This AFC matchup for Wildcard weekend should be a fun matchup to watch regardless. Stay tuned for more coverage on the NFL playoffs with the Divisional Round next week from Total Apex Bets and Fantasy.
