Brian Thomas Jr. enters his second season with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2025, the second year of his four-year rookie contract worth $14.66 million. After playing three seasons for Louisiana State University, Thomas Jr. entered the NFL Draft as one of the top wide receivers on the big board.
He entered the NFL Draft in 2024, where the Jaguars drafted him in the first round, 23rd overall. In his only season in the league thus far, Thomas Jr. amassed 1,282 receiving yards on 87 receptions and 10 receiving touchdowns, along with 48 yards rushing and no additional touchdowns. He has not attempted any passing statistics.
Last season, Brian Thomas Jr. was the number four wide receiver across all league formats. Thomas Jr. slotted in as a rookie last year seamlessly and is a reliable and potential superstar talent for the Jaguars. His quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, is inconsistent but has built a comfort level with him on one of the better potential offenses in the league. This should continue while both players remain a focal member of the Jaguars, and his ability to make impressive catches and make plays after the catch, and in the endzone, makes him a true threat each time he touches the ball.
The defense is shaky, and the quarterback is a roller coaster of talent. Will a new coach and general manager help Brian Thomas Jr. fine-tune his skills and help him remain one of the top receivers in the league?
Brian Thomas Jr. 2024 Stats and Fantasy Production
Brian Thomas Jr. played in all 17 games last season with the Jaguars. Thomas Jr. caught 87 of 133 passes thrown his way, for 1,282 receiving yards while recording 10 touchdowns. He also rushed for 48 yards in six attempts, with no additional touchdowns. He accumulated no passing or special-teams points.
In 2024, Brian Thomas Jr. was a fantastic WR1 for any fantasy team that drafted him. Using Fantasy Pros standard scoring, Thomas Jr. was worth 11.6 points per game for a total of 197 points cumulatively. In PPR leagues, those numbers jumped to 16.7 per game for a cumulative total of 284 points. In all formats, he scored the fourth-most points of any wide receiver in the league.
He stayed fully healthy for the season, something that bodes well for his future, and was the clear lead wide receiver for the Jaguars despite being surrounded by other well-established names. Brian Thomas Jr. is the clear top-five wide receiver, with the opportunity to grow even more in his sophomore season.
Brian Thomas Jr. 2025 Fantasy Outlook
Brian Thomas Jr. enters 2025 healthy and coming off a fantastic rookie campaign. Unlike other players in the outlook series, Thomas has security for at least several years with his current team, given he is only one year into his rookie deal. Thomas Jr. will look to show teams he has even more in him and propel himself to among the most dominant weapons in the NFL while attempting to push the Jaguars to the next level.
Thomas Jr. still managed to post great numbers in 2024, even as the team around him struggled, and his quarterback situation was in flux due to injury and underperformance. He became a safety net for anyone who was under center in the season, and that should only continue with a more stable situation within the organization, albeit with a first-year coaching staff.
According to Fantasy Pros, Brian Thomas Jr. is projected as the 11th overall pick in standard leagues, seventh among wide receivers. In both PPR leagues, he stays similar, at number eleven overall and number eight among wide receivers. His highest projection is for half PPR leagues, where he projects at the 10th pick overall and seventh among wide receivers.
Entering 2025, I expect Thomas Jr. to have an even better year than his rookie season. With a new offensive-minded coaching staff and a commitment to Trevor Lawrence at QB, and a newly drafted Travis Hunter beside him on offense and many additional emerging players at TE and RB, Thomas Jr. can continue to gather targets and yards without the pressure of being the whole show. The Jaguars have hopes of making the playoffs and making a deep run, and it will start with the depth and success of the offense.
Brian Thomas Jr. should be able to gather 1350-1450 total passing yards, which would be a career high, 95-105 receptions, also a career high, and 10-12 touchdowns. Despite a lot of mouths to feed on the offense and a new and unproven coaching staff, Thomas should still be able to improve on his rookie season. He is projected to get drafted somewhere in the late first or early second round. For the 2025 season, this value matches his talent, and he could even outperform projections, but there is inherent risk with any player in the early stages of their career.
Brian Thomas Jr. Dynasty Outlook
Brian Thomas Jr. will be entering his age-23 season this year. There is no question that Thomas has multiple good years left in his prime, even pushing a new decade worth of high-level contribution given his age. He could stay near the top of the wide receiver rankings throughout that time. Given his youth and a lack of injury history, he should be a reliable force in a fantasy lineup.
Many other good wide receivers in the league can put up solid fantasy points. However, what Brian Thomas Jr. was able to pull off as a rookie on an underwhelming team with a distraction at coach and an injury at QB caught the attention of the league. The positive is that wide receivers age better than running backs, and Thomas Jr. is still very young, so he should only continue to grow and fill out dominant stat lines for years to come.
The biggest red flag for Brian Thomas Jr. is not him, but the team around him. Drafting Travis Hunter could impact some of the opportunities Thomas Jr. has come his way. A new coaching staff could potentially change the scheme and take targets away from him. Trevor Lawrence remains an inconsistent force at the quarterback position. However, given that he had proven himself under multiple different play callers in 2024, including one with a history of struggling on offense, he had proven that his numbers could be repeated even in chaos.
Brian Thomas Jr. is a clear top-level talent with the potential to become a superstar, and he can slot in with consistent targets and numbers each week. He should be held on to if he is already owned by you in your league, unless a team wants to offer a king’s ransom. He will score plenty of points and slot in as one of the best and most consistent WR1s in the league, an easy start every week.
Owners should be reserved of giving up a lot to acquire him if the asking price is too high, though, depending on your team’s depth. A single WR is not enough to win a league on his own, and given his age and success so far, the cost will likely cripple the team around him. Owners will ask for the moon, and ultimately, one player will not win you a league on his own unless you have incredible depth to withstand the price tag.
Final Thoughts
Entering his age-23 season, Brian Thomas Jr. has a short track record, but the success he did have should give fantasy players confidence that it will continue for many years to come. For 2025, he is worth drafting and relying on as a middle to top-end WR1 option. Thomas had a great rookie season, and assuming he again stays healthy, that pattern should continue. The Jaguars are attempting to be back in contention, and with plenty of weapons on offense that will overwhelm opposing defenses, opportunities should come for the skilled WR. Thomas Jr. is no guarantee, but he should still be a pretty safe bet.
