The AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills, winners of four straight and 7-2 overall travel to Indianapolis to take on the 4-5 Colts. Buffalo is red hot having scored 94 points in their last three games and have pushed their AFC East division lead to four games. Indianapolis has lost two straight and three of five and no longer features Anthony Richardson as their starting signal caller. Joe Flacco has taken over the reins in last week’s 21-13 loss to Minnesota on Sunday night.
Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts DFS Start ‘Ems
Here are a few of the players that we are leaning on heavily in this game. These players are in a good spot to put together a solid performance and have a favorable matchup.
James Cook ($7k DraftKings and $7.8k Fanduel)
James Cook gets the Colt’s defense which is ranked 31st against the run and 31st in points allowed to the running position. Cooks is the clear RB1 on the Bills averaging 18 touches, 81.8 yards, and 8 total touchdowns. Cook has been operating as a three-down back with his involvement in both the passing and running game. That usage provides us with a game script-proof DFS start recommendation.
Jonathan Taylor ($7.5k DraftKings and $8.6k Fanduel)
Taylor represents the safest of the Colts DFS options in this game for us. He is back healthy and in Week 9, he handled 68% of the Colt’s rushes. The way to attack the Bills defense is on the ground, they rank 31st in points allowed to the running back position. In Week 9, we saw De’Von Achane average 5.3 yards per rush, score 32.3 points and finish as the RB2.
Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts DFS Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side of things, here are a few of the players we recommend sitting in this one.
Amari Cooper ($5.8k DraftKings and $6.7k Fanduel)
On the Bills side, the sits are very difficult to recommend because they have an offense that has averged north of 30 points in the past three games. With Keon Coleman just declared out for this game, we are sitting Amari Cooper in DFS this week. Cooper was inactive last week with a wrist injury and played limited snaps in Week 8 versus Titans even though he did score a touchdown. Khalil Shakir seems to be the wideout Allen trusts the most, based of his target share and red zone usage. We are backing off Cooper until we see him in full health.
Michael Pittman ($6k DraftKings and $6.2k Fanduel)
We are sitting Pittman this week, for multiple reasons. First, the Bills defense is top four versus perimeter wideouts in points allowed per game and receiving yards per game. Second, Pittman has just 30 catches in nine games with a 52.6% catch rate. Now part of that goes to the abysmal play of Anthony Richardson, but even with Flacco under center, Pittman has only a 14.5% target share. That is substandard for a player who profiled as his team’s WR1 during the draft season. Pittman is an easy DFS decision for us until proven otherwise.
Total Apex Lock of the Game
Josh Allen ($7.7k DraftKings and $9.2k Fanduel)
We are going back to the well again for our DFS lock with Josh Allen. Allen is priced as the second-highest quarterback on FanDuel, the overall QB4, and gets a great matchup versus Colt’s defense ranked just 24th in points allowed to quarterbacks. Allen is heating up averaging 23.08 FanDuel fantasy points in his last four games. In Week 9, the Colts surrendered 290 passing yards and 3 touchdowns to Sam Darnold. If you want to pay up in DFS for quarterback in Week 10, lock in Josh Allen.
Total Apex Fade of the Game
Joe Flacco ($5.5k DraftKings and $7.3k Fanduel)
We moved Joe Flacco to fade this week and not a straight sit, as we know some people may need him season-long with four teams on a bye. That being said, Flacco gets a Week 10 matchup versus a stout Bills pass defense. Buffalo ranks 7th in points allowed to the quarterback position and Flacco last week versus Minnesota had just 4.06 fantasy points. The way to expose the Bills is on the ground, as they are middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed per game and 31st in points allowed to running backs.
Conclusion
Bills-Colts featured the second highest implied total on the main slate at 47, and features the second highest priced DFS quarterback in Josh Alllen. It starts and ends right there as he is obviously our most trusted selection. The Buffalo offense features plenty of DFS options in James Cook and do not forget about Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid is due for that breakout game, as he has commanded a 21.4% target share. One player on the Colts side that we did not profile is Josh Downs. Downs is the Colt’s WR1, garnering a 27.3% target share, top 20 in rezone targets and is PPR WR20.
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