Drafted as the second fantasy football defense in 2023, the Buffalo Bills finished 3rd in scoring, paying drafters back for high capital spent at the position. This year, however, they are being drafted as the D/ST11 by ADP. They’ve fallen off, and perhaps drafters think they’re getting a potential steal at the position, but that’s not the case.
In home leagues, it is possible they could fall to the very back of the draft, but it’s likely with memory bias that the only way to secure the Bills on your redraft team is to do it with a few valuable rounds left in your draft. The Bills are currently being drafted around a handful of rookie running backs with contingent upside.
Past Performance
In 2023, the Bills were one of the most formidable redraft defenses. With 54 sacks, 18 INTs, and a trio of touchdowns, this defense averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game, fully worth a flex spot in its own right. As with any D/ST, there are ups and downs, and with one 32-point game, the Bills’ end-of-season performance far outpaced their actual fantasy usefulness.
In 2023, Buffalo was as likely to score in the bottom six of defenses as in the top six. The issue is that 2023 was somewhat of an outlier. In the previous two seasons, the Bills had fewer sacks, forced fumbles, recovered fumbles, and touchdowns.
2024 Outlook
Expecting a natural regression toward the mean, especially taking a more realistic approach to touchdowns, this fantasy defense is going to score less in 2024 than in 2023. At their ADP, however, that isn’t necessarily a problem. It is entirely possible that they could repeat their success this upcoming year, making them a fantasy smash at cost.
One hopeful note is that veteran defensive terror, Von Miller, says he is feeling more like he was two years ago according to a report from Rotowire. After a sackless 2023 in which the defensive captain was plagued by injury, if Von Miller can look more like himself from his days as a Ram, then the defense as a whole could lift up around him.
Although Miller is the potential bright star in the defense, ESPN’s Mike Clay is giving the Bills the second-toughest schedule and ranks their tackles and sacks in the bottom half of the league. According to FantasyPros, expert consensus has them as the D/ST8, three spots above ADP, while ESPN ranks them three spots low at D/ST14. The market is probably right, meaning there likely is no advantage to drafting them at ADP.
Final Thoughts
We have very good reason to believe that this fantasy defense can and should score close to ADP. If they can perform the same way or better in 2024 than in 2023, they will be a steal at the position. However, it’s Clay’s pessimism about their schedule that gives me pause. A healthy Aaron Rodgers means a tougher division opponent. And although they get smash games against the woeful Patriots, their second matchup against the pass is in meaningless Week 18.
They’ll also have to face the Jaguars, who put up a season-worst 474 yards against them in 2023, and they’re also up against the Chiefs, Texans, Ravens, and 49ers. It’s not going to be pretty, but I’m not completely writing this team off, however. They may beat ADP, but it won’t happen until their schedule softens up late. Let somebody else pay up to draft them and only scoop them up as a defensive streaming option.
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