Houston Rockets (1 – 2) vs. Golden State Warriors (2-1)
Game Details: Monday, April 28th, 2025 @ 9:00 pm EST
Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
Where to Watch: TNT/truTV/Max
The Rockets and Warriors bring us a pivotal postseason clash for each team to bet on. These games have a physical feel, and both teams are on the brink of playing rough streetball. Sharp bettors see that games are trending heavily on defense and a slower pace. The lack of offensive rhythm creates an edge in the books we can correlate to increase our bankrolls. After multiple simulations in our model, we locked in three bets: the game under, Steph Curry points under, and Draymond Green points under. Let’s get it.
Apex Tale Of The Tape
| Team Stats | ||
| 95.7 | Points Per Game | 97.7 |
| 50 | Rebounds Per Game | 38 |
| 19.7 | Assists Per Game | 22.7 |
| 4.3 | Blocks Per Game | 4.3 |
| 7.7 | Steals Per Game | 10 |
| 41.3% | Field Goal Percentage | 43.9% |
| 33% | Three Point Percentage | 35.8% |
| 64.1% | Free Throw Percentage | 4 |
| 43.9% | Opp. Field Goal Percentage | 41.3% |
| 35.8% | Opp. Three Point Percentage | 33% |
| 16.3 | Fouls Per Game |
Projected Starting 5’s
| Position | ||
| Steph Curry | PG | Fred VanVleet |
| Brandin Podziemski | SG | Jalen Green |
| Jimmy Butler (Q) if out, Marcus Moody | SF | Amen Thompson |
| Jonathan Kuminga | PF | Dillon Brooks |
| Draymond Green | C | Alperen Sengun |
Key Stats
Full Game Under 203 Points (-110)
The strongest play of the day is the glaringly obvious total game under 203. None of the games in this series have gone over 200 points so far. Our model projects 197.2 points thanks to a slower pace, defensive adjustments, and the Rockets’ ability to handle perimeter defenses. Our model’s confidence is 9/10, giving this bet a 63.1% true probability.
Steph Curry Under 27.5 Points (-132)
Steph Curry is getting trapped repeatedly, leading to lower-scoring outputs of 24, 22, and 26 points in the first three games. His 27.5-point prop shows the books think he remains around this area in Game 4. The defensive scheme and shot volume give this bet a hit probability of 64.8%. Some books have moved the line from 28.5 to 27.5, so get it now.
Draymond Green Under 9.5 Points (-120)
Draymond Green is a great playmaker and defender, but a terrible shooter. He puts on his facilitator shoes before each game and has averaged just four field goal attempts per game in this series. The Rockets are daring him to shoot, but he keeps looking to drop dimes and lock down on defense. Our model gives this a 66.5% true probability for this to hit. The line is 8.5 in some spots, so grab it at 9.5 before all books adjust.
Betting Trends
 | Betting Stats |  |
| 1 – 2 | W/L Last 3 | 2 – 1 |
| 44 – 40 – 1 | ATS | 43 – 40 – 3 |
| 44 – 39 – 2 | O/U | 42 – 44 – 0 |
Prediction
Tonight’s game is going to be another grind. Correlate your slip for a marriage of under, defensive, and physical play. Use the matchup-specific trends to maximize edge while keeping variance low. Tail these bets with confidence and look for another slow-paced playoff battle that rewards smart wagering.
