Game number two of the NFL Week 18 doubleheader features the 8-8 Cincinnati Bengals traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the 10-6 Steelers. This AFC North battle game comes with major playoff implications. To earn a postseason bid, Cincinnati needs a win and a loss by the Broncos and Dolphins on Sunday. The Steelers have clinched a playoff spot but can be anywhere from the 3 to the 6 seed. The best case for the Steelers would be a win and the Ravens to lose to Cleveland. If that happens Pittsburgh would win the AFC North champs and be the number three seed.
This game will be a DFS single-game contest option, the Saturday-Sunday slate, and part of the Saturday main-slate contests. Our DFS write-ups are designed to spotlight some core plays to help you build a unique DFS lineup within your single game or main slate entries. In creating a successful lineup, we research and find positional values to see where you can save money and players with projected low ownership who can pay 2x-2.5x of their listed DFS salary.
Bengals vs. Steelers DFS Start ‘Ems
Here are a few of the players that we are leaning on in this game. They are in a good spot to put together a solid performance and have a favorable DFS match-up.
Khalil Herbert ($5.1k DraftKings and $6k Fanduel)
With Chase Brown highly questionable with a high ankle sprain, rostering Herbert is an obvious choice albeit a most likely chalky one. Brown has yet to practice this and if he does play he will not be 100 percent. Even if Brown plays, Rostering Herbert can still give you a viable flex play at a great DFS salary. We are by no means saying this is a one-for-one talent swap, but the running back spot in the Bengal’s offense is very fantasy-friendly. Chase Brown is the overall RB10 and has seen 22.5 touches per game across the last four contests. The Steeler’s defense is also below average in fantasy points allowed to running, ranking just 18th.
Russell Wilson ($5.3k DraftKings and $7.3k Fanduel)
Russell Wilson is a nice play this week for multiple reasons. First, he may go overlooked as the overall narrative is down on the Steelers as they ride a three-game losing streak. With all that said, Wilson has still put up 35.08 fantasy points and averaged 212 passing yards and 82 total rushing yards in his last two contests. A possible contrarian DFS build could be to pair Wilson with the Bengals wideouts, which still gives you exposure to Joe Burrow. On top of that, the Bengal’s defense ranks only 27th versus the pass and 24th overall.
Bengals vs. Steelers DFS Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side, here are a few players we recommend sitting in this one.
Andrei Iosivas ($4k DraftKings and $5.4k Fanduel)
Andrei Iosivas, similar to Mike Williams below, is nothing more than a DFS punt play. Iosivas runs fourth at best in the Bengals’ receiving pecking order, with just 14 catches in his last five games. Although Iosivas is on the field when Cincinnati goes 11 personnel, he is a touchdown or bust play. We feel tight end Mike Gesicki will be the third option behind Chase and Higgins, as he saw 12 targets last week. In addition, Joey Porter Jr. is slated to return to Pittsburgh and may shadow Higgins as he did in week 13.
Mike Williams ($3.3k DraftKings and $4.9k Fanduel)
Not sure why the Steelers acquired Mike Williams, as they simply do not employ him enough in their game plan. Willimas sees a snap count in the mid-30 percent area and he averages 3.1 fantasy points per game. Even in the three games that George Pickens missed, William’s snap share never topped 37%. Last week he ran behind both Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin III and is nothing more than a DFS punt play this week.
Total Apex Lock of the Game
Joe Burrow ($7.5k DraftKings and $8.6k Fanduel)
Joe Burrow is like Josh Allen, you do not overthink it. Burrow is having an MVP-caliber season and if he can get Cincinnati into the postseason, watch out! Burrow is the overall QB3 and leads the league in both passing yards and passing touchdowns. Burrow also gets a favorable match-up, the Steelers are below-average in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and their overall pass defense is ranked just 23rd. In the last three games, all versus top-flight quarterbacks, the Steelers have surrendered 26.19 points per game. Lock in Joe Burrow for our DFS player of the game!
Total Apex Fade of the Game
Najee Harris ($5.3k DraftKings and $6.2k Fanduel)
Najee Harris is a fade for us in this one, and he certainly is an option at his salary but has shown very little of late. In his last three games, Harris has averaged 5.3 points per game and has reached double-digit fantasy points just twice in the last six games. He has scored once in the last four outings and has not topped the 50% snap since week 13. Jaylen Warren is a better option at $5.8k is a better option and conversely seeing an increased snap rate since week 13.
Conclusion
These recommendations are overall designed to give you players we feel will be low-owned or a good value when you create your DFS builds. We want a DFS lineup different from the masses and most likely made with an optimizer. Each week in DFS, your pay line for FanDuel is approximately 125 points, which equates to 2x per player. For example, a player with a $4500 salary needs 9 points. DraftKings pay line is approximately 134 points, which is 2.5x per player. So, for a $4500 salary, that player would need 9.9 points.
The Bengals-Steelers tilt features a very fantasy-friendly implied game total of 48 and the obvious choices of Ja’Marr Chase, George Pickens, and Tee Higgins are not mentioned.
Additional Choices: Jaylen Warren, Mike Gesicki, Pat Freiermuth
