ATP Monte-Carlo Picks for April 10, 2025

Clay court season has begun for the ATP, and it begins with a very important Masters 1000 event on the men’s side. So much has already happened a mere two days into the tournament. Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev are out, which has given a huge opportunity for other men to challenge Carlos Alcaraz for the Monte-Carlo title.

Day three sees all rounds of 16 matches taking place, which makes for some tasty matchups to see who makes the last eight. There are some top 10 matches but also some players who, with a win, get a huge boost to their season and try to get seeded for the second major of the year.

Jack Draper(-245) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina(+198)–> Prediction: Draper

The 2025 Indian Wells champ is playing some great tennis, which has gotten him to a career-high ranking of sixth in the world. Draper has made his name very well-known over the last month, and he is also a very solid player on the dirt. His opponent in this match is the most inconsistent player so far in 2025. The Spaniard has had some nice wins but also brutal losses. Draper is the far more solid player who is in peak form at the moment. Draper’s rise isn’t a fluke, and that will show with a good result here in Monte-Carlo.

Casper Ruud(-430) vs. Alexei Popyrin(+315)–> Prediction: Ruud

This is the easiest bet to make on day three in Monte-Carlo because Ruud is one of the three best players in the world on Clay. Ruud has been to two French Open finals and was even a finalist at this tournament last season. Ruud has mostly mixed results on the grass and hard courts, but clay is his best surface. It’s the time of year in which he soars, and this is the perfect matchup that will send him to the Quarterfinals.

Lorenzo Musetti(+116) vs. Matteo Berrettini(-140)–> Prediction: Musetti

This feels like the match of the day as the battle of the two top Italians in this tournament. Berrettini has one of the best wins of the tournament after beating Zverev on Tuesday, while Musetti has been coming through the tourney so far very under the radar. Because Berrettini is coming off a huge win, he is the slight favorite, but I like going with the underdog because Clay is a more favorable surface for him, and it’s gotten him his best results on the tennis calendar.

Conclusion for ATP Monte-Carlo

The clay season kicking off with the ATP Monte-Carlo seems to either excite players or make them extremely anxious. It’s a tough surface to learn at this point, while other players have the majority of their tour wins on the dirt. But unlike grass, which only takes a month out of the year, this is a long part of the season, and players can’t get bought by being a mediocre clay player. The last 16 shows some clay specialists who you would expect to go deep in a tournament, but there are also some players playing great on a surface that they usually don’t get great results on.