We all know wide receivers fetch a premium ADP in Fantasy Football drafts everywhere, especially with more leagues going to multiple flex spots. Those wideouts provide the easiest path to points in PPR leagues, and the best of them give you consistency on which you can bank that just isn’t there at the running back position.
That said, I’m finding out that there are some pass-catchers that I’m just never getting in my drafts because it feels like the draft capital is way too high. I’m not necessarily fading these four wide receivers, but I’m also not willing to overpay to go get them.
Drake London, Atlanta (ADP WR11)
At his current WR11 overall value, drafters are saying that they’re OK with London as a back-end WR1. I always have a problem giving a player credit for something that he hasn’t yet accomplished. London has clocked in as a WR4-type player in terms of fantasy points per game at the wide receiver position in his first two seasons. That’s an awful big leap then to project him as one of the best in the game this year.
I understand that Arthur Smith is gone, and the Falcons will open things up a tad with Kirk Cousins. But just putting London in a Rams-style system doesn’t make him Cooper Kupp or Justin Jefferson. The guy doesn’t even catch touchdowns, which is shocking considering his size advantage on most backs. I think he’ll be much-improved stat-wise this year, but won’t get to that lofty ADP.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco (ADP WR14)
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I actually have Samuel in the WR2 area in my rankings as well, so his ADP isn’t outrageous. I’m just a little leery about some of the players that are going behind him that I would much rather have (guys like Amari Cooper or Jaylen Waddle). The ADP is likely based on the belief that Brandon Aiyuk is going to be leaving town via trade.
Put me in the camp of thinking that won’t happen. But even if it does, I don’t think that puts Samuel in the position of being a kind of go-to option for Brock Purdy. Also, Samuel has a hard time staying healthy for two straight years in his career. Considering that he missed only two games last year, I’m skeptical about his ability to stay on the field this year. That kind of uncertainty is likely why he’s one wide receiver not on any of my rosters this year.
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo (ADP WR22)
A couple of red flags are keeping me from taking a dive on Diggs at that ADP. For one thing, he’s finished last season in a serious slump. You could argue that his dissatisfaction with the Bills was bleeding into his play, but it’s still worrisome to see how far he dropped off (less than 40 yards receiving in six of his last eight games). On top of that, he goes from a team where he was the clear-cut target hog to one with two established options (Nico Collins and Tank Dell) that are much younger.
There’s also the concern that Diggs, who has been known to cause some friction when things don’t go his way, might start pouting if he’s not getting the ball the way to which he’s accustomed. I think he’s a much safer play as a WR3 with upside than as a WR2 on whom your fantasy team relies.
Jayden Reed, Green Bay (ADP WR36)
I actually love Reed as a player, but it’s the situation that worries me. The Packers are a team with no less than four receivers who seem like they’d be starting for most teams in the league. Their passing game is predicated on picking on defensive weaknesses rather than trying to force the ball to specific players.
It helps that Reed will likely get the ball on runs, sometimes in the red zone, to give him a point boost. But it feels like his productivity will be erratic, simply because there will be games when he takes a back seat while others thrive. Not to mention the fact that a healthy Christian Watson is the only guy of the four who seems like he might have a higher ceiling than WR3. Reed might get to WR3 status, but I think he’s more likely to settle in as a Fantasy fourth receiver who splashes occasionally but also frustrates his owners with very quiet weeks.
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