Minnesota Gophers vs. New Mexico Lobos Preview, Prediction & Odds | Rate Bowl – Dec 26

Minnesota
Minnesota Gophers (7-5) at New Mexico Lobos (9-3)
Game Details: Friday, December 26, 2:30 p.m. EST
Location: Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona
Where to Watch: ESPN

Matchup

College football has seen a massive shift in recent years, with players regularly opting out of bowl games to prepare for the draft or transfer to new schools.   But for the Minnesota Gophers and the New Mexico Lobos, this Friday’s Rate Bowl in Phoenix is anything but an afterthought. It’s a clash of contrasting styles and a chance to make history at Chase Field.

Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck has built a culture where the postseason matters deeply, evidenced by the Gophers’ active eight-game bowl winning streak—the longest in the FBS and the longest ever for a Big Ten team.   On the other sideline, New Mexico is riding high after a stunning nine-win season. The Lobos are hungry for validation on a national stage, looking to cap off a year where they shattered expectations and broke down barriers that have held the program back for nearly a decade.

Betting Odds

Team Spread Money Line Total
Minnesota Gophers-1.5-120Over 43.5
New Mexico Lobos+1.5+102Under 43.5

**Statistics from various online sources and courtesy of ESPN and FOX Sports **

Tale of The Tape

Minnesota GophersTeam Stats – Avg Per GameNew Mexico Lobos
23.3Points Per Game27.9
193.5Passing Yards Per Game214.5
103.1Rushing Yards Per Game155.1
23.4Opponents Points Per Game Allowed22.5
220.8Opponents Pass Yards Allowed 236.0
121.5Opponents Rush Yards Allowed 113.4

Statistics from various online sources and courtesy of ESPN and FOX Sports

Key Details

Nov 29, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers tight end Jameson Geers (86) catches
a touchdown pass against the Wisconsin Badgers during the second half at Huntington Bank Stadium.
Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Minnesota Gophers

The Gophers enter this matchup with a 7-5 record and a reputation for thriving when the lights are bright in December. A win would push their bowl winning streak to nine, inching them closer to Florida State’s all-time record of 11. 

While the team has been inconsistent at times this season, particularly on the ground, they have found stability under center with quarterback Drake Lindsey. Standing tall at 6-foot-5, the redshirt freshman took over starting duties and hasn’t looked back, throwing six touchdowns and zero interceptions over the final six games.

Their running game ranked last in the Big Ten this year, and they are facing a New Mexico defense that allows just over 113 rushing yards per game. To keep their streak alive, Minnesota will need to control the tempo and rely on Lindsey’s efficiency in the short-to-intermediate passing game to move the chains against a physical Lobos front.

New Mexico

For New Mexico, just being here is a triumph. Most experts predicted a two or three-win season for a squad featuring a new coaching staff and over 77 transfers. Instead, Jason Eck guided the Lobos to a 9-3 record and a six-game winning streak to close the year—their longest since 1997. They’ve done it with a potent mix of disciplined defense and a surprisingly explosive offense that set a school record for total yards per game. The Lobos’ identity is built on a punishing ground game led by a deep backfield including Damon Bankston and DJ McKinney. When they rush for over 80 yards, they are undefeated this season. Defensively, they are aggressive and fundamentally sound, holding opponents to just 12.3 points per game over the last three weeks of the season.

Prediction

New Mexico is on a roll and has more motivation to win. This game just means more to them.

Final Pick

New Mexico  +1.5

Under 43.5

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