We’re five weeks deep into this wild ride, and if you’re not making moves in the trade market, you’re getting left in the dust. Week 5 just handed us some brutal reality checks: bye weeks are here, injuries are piling up like Monday morning coffee cups, and some of your “sure thing” draft picks are looking about as reliable as a punt returner in a tornado.
But here’s the thing that separates the championship contenders from the waiver wire warriors: knowing when to strike. The smart money isn’t panicking right now: they’re hunting. They’re identifying which players are about to explode and which ones are riding unsustainable hot streaks straight off a cliff.
After watching every snap, crunching the numbers, and seeing the writing on the wall, I’ve got eight players that need to be on your radar immediately. Four you should be acquiring before their values skyrocket, and four you need to cash in on before reality comes knocking.
The Golden Opportunities: Players to Buy Low
Rico Dowdle, RB – Carolina Panthers
Holy smokes, did Rico Dowdle just have himself a Sunday! While everyone was focused on Chuba Hubbard’s calf injury, Dowdle went absolutely nuclear against Miami: 23 carries, 206 rushing yards, and a touchdown that had fantasy managers doing victory laps around their living rooms.
But here’s where it gets interesting. Dowdle owners might be getting antsy about his inconsistent usage earlier in the season, and non-Hubbard managers might not realize they’re sitting on a potential goldmine. This guy has been waiting in the wings all season, and now he’s got a legitimate shot at significant carries while Hubbard recovers.
The upcoming schedule? Chef’s kiss. Dallas and the Jets are coming up, and both defenses have been more porous than a screen door in a submarine. If you can pry Dowdle away from a panicked owner who’s focused on his earlier struggles, you’re setting yourself up for a massive win.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR – Carolina Panthers
T-Mac is the definition of a buy-low candidate right now, and it’s driving me crazy that more people aren’t talking about it. Yeah, his touchdown production has been practically non-existent, but this kid is absolutely eating up target share like it’s his job: because it literally is.
We’re talking about a 29.6% target share and leading the team in receiving yards for five straight games. Eight targets minimum every single week. The connection with Bryce Young is getting stronger, and it is a matter of when they start finding the end zone together. When that happens, McMillan is going to be a league-winner.
The rest of Carolina’s receiving corps combined for just 10 targets in Week 5. That’s not a fluke: that’s McMillan establishing himself as the clear-cut number one option. The rookie receiver is one of the few players with the most targets without scoring a single touchdown among pass-catchers in the NFL. His time is coming, so get him now before the touchdowns start raining down and his price tag goes through the roof.
David Njoku, TE – Cleveland
The quarterback change in Cleveland from Joe Flacco to rookie sensation Dillon Gabriel might have just breathed new life into Njoku’s fantasy season. We’re talking about a complete 180 here, folks.
With Flacco under center, Njoku was averaging a measly 3.5 catches on 5.3 targets for 32 yards and 6.7 fantasy points per game. Single-digit performances across the board. But Gabriel’s first start? Nine targets, six catches, 67 yards, and a touchdown for 18.7 fantasy points.
Here’s the kicker: Njoku saw as many targets as Jerry Jeudy and Harold Fannin Jr. combined. That’s not an accident. Gabriel clearly trusts his tight end, and in a position as barren as tight end has been this year, finding a weekly starter with legitimate upside is like striking oil in your backyard.
Matthew Stafford, QB – Los Angeles Rams
Don’t sleep on Stafford just because he’s not the flashiest name on the waiver wire. This future Hall of Famer has been quietly putting together a fantastic season after that ugly Week 1 stumble.
Over the past four weeks, Stafford’s averaging 314.5 passing yards, 2.5 touchdowns, and 21 fantasy points per game. More importantly, he’s been absolutely on fire lately – 67.1% completion rate, 382 yards, three touchdowns, and 26.5 fantasy points per game over his last two outings.
The upcoming schedule is absolutely mouth-watering. Baltimore’s defense has more holes than Swiss cheese right now, and Stafford has the weapons to exploit every single one of them. If you need quarterback help, Stafford is your guy.
Time to Cash Out: Players to Sell High
C.J. Stroud, QB – Houston Texans
I hate to rain on the Stroud parade, but we need to talk about what’s really happening here. Yes, Houston’s passing attack has looked significantly better the past two weeks. Yes, Stroud has been completing passes at an 81.8% clip with three touchdowns and 23.6 fantasy points per game.
But let’s pump the brakes for a second. He just faced Tennessee and a Ravens defense that’s been more banged up than a rental car. Before these two cupcake matchups, Stroud had exactly two passing touchdowns and 31.1 total fantasy points over three games. That’s not exactly lighting the world on fire.
Here’s the reality check: Houston has their bye in Week 6, then it’s staring down a gauntlet of legitimate defenses. If someone in your league is buying into the recent hot streak and is willing to overpay, now’s the time to strike.
Nick Chubb, RB – Houston Texans
All the waiver wire buzz was about rookie Woody Marks last week, but he managed just 2.4 fantasy points while Chubb salvaged 12.1. Don’t let that fool you into thinking Chubb has figured it out.
The veteran is averaging a paltry 11.6 rushing attempts and 9.7 fantasy points per game this season. He’s touchdown-dependent in the worst way: without finding the end zone, he’s yet to crack 8.2 points in any game. That’s not sustainable production for a player people are still valuing based on his pre-injury reputation.
Factor in Houston’s absolutely brutal schedule coming out of their Week 6 bye, and you’ve got a recipe for disappointment. If there’s a Chubb truther in your league still holding onto hope, let them have him.
Josh Downs, WR – Indianapolis
Downs just put together his best performance of the season: six catches on eight targets for 54 yards and 11.4 fantasy points. That sounds decent until you realize it’s been a desert everywhere else.
In his other four games, Downs is averaging just 4.8 targets and 6.5 fantasy points. We’re talking about single-digit performances in three of those four contests. This Week 5 uptick isn’t a sign of things turning around: it’s a selling opportunity.
Here’s what really concerns me: Tyler Warren and Michael Pittman Jr. combined for 10 targets in Week 5, but they’d been averaging 14 targets per game over the first four weeks. When those guys are healthy and involved, Downs becomes an afterthought real quick.
Tony Pollard, RB – Tennessee Titans
Pollard has been riding a workload wave that’s about to crash hard. Through the first four weeks, he was playing around 90% of snaps and looking like a legitimate workhorse back. But Tyjae Spears returned in Week 5, and Pollard’s snap share immediately dropped to 73%.
Even with that decreased usage, Pollard managed 17 total touches and found the end zone, giving him 32.8 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the season. But here’s the thing: he’s averaging just 32.8 rushing yards per game and ranking as the RB28 in points per game despite that heavy early-season workload.
The writing’s on the wall: his volume is going to continue shrinking as Spears gets healthier, and his production was already underwhelming when he had the backfield to himself. If someone values him based on those early snap counts rather than actual production, make the deal.
The Bottom Line: Strike While the Iron’s Hot
Week 6 is make-or-break time for a lot of fantasy teams. The managers who are going to separate themselves from the pack are the ones making calculated moves right now: not panicking, not holding onto sinking ships, but identifying value and striking fast.
These eight players represent clear opportunities to either buy future production at a discount or cash in on inflated values before they come crashing down. The difference between a championship team and an also-ran often comes down to nailing two or three of these types of trades during the season.
Don’t be the manager who looks back in Week 15 wishing they’d made moves when the opportunities were staring them in the face. The trade deadline is approaching faster than you think, and these windows won’t stay open forever.
Time to get aggressive, trust your instincts, and make the moves that’ll have you celebrating in December.
