Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys find themselves in familiar territory, being overhyped before the season even begins. Sure, the win total dropped from last year’s disaster, but oddsmakers still have the Cowboys pegged at 7.5 wins, with the over favored at -125. Here’s the thing: sometimes the obvious play is the wrong play, and this might be one of those times.
The Coaching Question Mark Nobody Wants to Talk About
Let’s start with the elephant in the room. Brian Schottenheimer is now running the show in Dallas, and CBS Sports already ranked him as the second-worst coach in the NFL, before he’s even coached a single game. That’s not exactly inspiring confidence.
The Cowboys had Mike McCarthy, a proven Super Bowl winner, and they couldn’t crack eight wins last season. Now they’re banking on a guy whose biggest claim to fame is being an offensive coordinator? Not even a good one either. Players can talk about their “energy” all they want, but energy doesn’t magically fix defensive schemes or game management decisions when you’re down by three with two minutes left.
It doesn’t help that Dallas’s 2025 schedule is brutal. The Cowboys face the seventh-hardest strength of schedule based on their opponents’ projected win totals. That’s not exactly ideal for a team trying to bounce back from a seven-win season.
Dak Prescott’s Injury History Is Real
Everyone wants to brush off Dak Prescott‘s injury concerns because he’s healthy right now. But let’s not pretend like last season didn’t happen. Prescott missed nine games, and when your entire offense revolves around one player, that’s a problem waiting to happen again. The Cowboys don’t have a proven backup plan. Cooper Rush is gone, and they’re left hoping that Prescott stays healthy for 17 games plus potential playoffs. That’s asking a lot from a quarterback who’s dealt with significant injuries in recent seasons.
Defense Still Has Major Issues
Dallas’s defense is a mess. The Cowboys dropped from fifth to 24th in defensive DVOA last season, and while injuries played a role, personnel losses have been significant. DeMarcus Lawrence is gone. The secondary remains questionable. And expecting a complete 180-degree turnaround from a defense that struggled mightily just because they might be healthier is wishful thinking. Plus, Micah Parsons wants out of the team as well, which is a big problem.
The NFC East Factor
Here’s where things get really interesting. The NFC East is no joke this season. The Eagles are favored to win 11.5 games, the Commanders are at 9.5, and even the Giants are expected to improve, although their schedule is brutal, too. If Philadelphia and Washington both perform to expectations, that’s four guaranteed losses right there for Dallas. Add in the brutal strength of schedule, and suddenly finding eight wins becomes a mountainous task.
The Smart Money Play: Take The Under For the Cowboys
Sometimes being contrarian pays off in sports betting, and this feels like one of those spots. While everyone’s buying into the “healthier Cowboys” narrative, the smart money recognizes that too many things need to go right for Dallas to clear 7.5 wins. Schottenheimer might turn out to be a great coach. Prescott might stay healthy all season. The defense might return to form. But when you’re betting on three different “mights” to hit simultaneously, you’re usually better off taking the other side. The Cowboys under 7.5 wins isn’t just a good bet—it’s the kind of value play that separates successful bettors from wishful thinkers.
