When your franchise’s biggest accomplishment in recent memory (Carolina Panthers) is not firing your head coach mid-season, you’ve probably set the bar somewhere around ankle height. Yet here we are, with oddsmakers projecting the Panthers to win 6.5 games this season, and half the NFL world acting like Carolina might actually be competitive. Let’s be honest about something here, about a young team that has some upside but that may have to calm down a bit heading into 2025.
The Bryce Young Reality Check
Look, I get it. Nobody wants to completely write off a quarterback who was drafted first overall just two years ago. But watching Bryce Young play football sometimes feels like watching your nephew try to arm-wrestle a grizzly bear. The kid’s got heart, sure, but physics doesn’t care about your feelings. When your quarterback’s best attribute is that he occasionally doesn’t panic immediately upon seeing pressure, you might have a problem. Young has thrown for more than 300 yards exactly once in his career. It also doesn’t help that Andy Dalton picked up an elbow injury in the preseason.
Dave Canales: Master of Spin
Speaking of people who might need a reality check, head coach Dave Canales recently declared that “the sky’s the limit” for his team. This is the same guy who nearly presided over the worst season in franchise history and is calling his decision to bench his starting quarterback after two games a “gutsy move that defines him.” That’s like calling it gutsy when you realize your house is on fire and decide to call the fire department.
Canales survived last season primarily because owner David Tepper realized that firing a third consecutive head coach might make him look unstable. Imagine that.
Schedule Reality
The Panthers face the ninth-hardest schedule of opposing offenses based on 2024 DVOA ratings. That’s a problem when your defense finished dead last in defensive DVOA while facing a much easier slate of opponents. All but one of Carolina’s non-divisional games comes against teams with win totals set at 7.5 or higher. They also get the pleasure of playing a bonus road game this season, because apparently the football gods have a sense of humor.
The Truth About Those Late-Season Wins
Panthers fans and media members love to point to that 4-5 finish as evidence of progress. But let’s examine what actually happened during that stretch: Seven of those nine games were decided by seven points or fewer. The four wins came by margins of one, three, six, and six points—three in overtime. They needed every break imaginable just to reach mediocrity. That’s not sustainable success; that’s statistical noise masquerading as improvement.
Why the Under Makes Sense
Here’s the bottom line: this Panthers roster has more holes than a practice net, led by a quarterback who looks lost half the time and coached by a man whose biggest accomplishment is not getting fired mid-season. The defense that couldn’t stop anyone last year somehow got worse in the offseason, losing their best pass rusher while adding a handful of spare parts. The offense revolves around a quarterback who struggles to complete 60% of his passes against prevent defenses.
Six wins would represent genuine progress for this franchise. Seven wins? That’s asking this organization to accomplish something it hasn’t done since 2017. Smart money takes the under on 6.5 wins and doesn’t look back. Because in a league where mediocrity gets you fired and excellence is rewarded with playoff births, the Panthers are still figuring out how to be bad efficiently.
