We’re coming off a heater of a weekend. Saturday’s picks powered us to the top of DraftKings’ $30K Jab Step contest for $5k. Hopefully, you avoided the Trayce Jackson-Davis trap (who “started” but only played 11 minutes) and ate with us. We have two lower-scoring affairs for Monday, so precision is key. Let’s move forward to today’s Main Slate picks to find our Lock, Fade, and Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em and continue our profitable postseason run on DraftKings.
Lock of the Day
Jimmy Butler
$8,500
Ownership: 40% – 50%
Playoff Jimmy is back! He played 43 minutes Saturday, dropping 51.3 fantasy points. He is averaging 25 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.1 assists now that he’s activated his postseason superpowers. His ownership projects around 30% on multiple sites, which seems too low. Coming off a 50+ fantasy point night, the field will be back in on him so I have it higher.
Jayson Tatum‘s unreliable fantasy behavior makes Jimmy an easy click since he is $1,200 cheaper and can put up the same number of fantasy points. I’ll have quite a bit of Tatum, too, but I will be way over the field on Butler and jam him in 70% or so of my 150 max contest lineups.
Start ‘Em
Brandin Podziemski
$5,300
Ownership: 25% – 35%
If I had a window-washing business, it’d be Podziemski’s Glass Cleaning. This man loves boards. He is one of the best rebounding guards in the league on Golden State and averaged 7.3 rebounds per game this series. What hasn’t worked: his shooting. He’s just 3-of-13 from deep and 6-of-26 from the floor altogether.
This slump is due to pass, and a ceiling game could be waiting for us in Game 4 for the Warriors. He’s averaging 33 minutes a game with Curry out, and I want to be ahead of the field when he gets his shooting touch back. At a 30 %ish ownership, he offers reasonably priced value and significant upside.
Gary Payton II
$3,200
Ownership: 20% – 30%
Payton is coming off two lackluster games for the Warriors. Throw out the Game 2 blowout, and we will get a clearer picture of his volatility. His Game 1 performance (22.75 DK points in 26 minutes) shows who he is as a player: a peripheral stats collector with low usage but efficient shooting.
Like Pods, his shooting has been off in the last two games, and there is room for improvement at a ridiculously low price. For $3,200, our lineups get a player projected for 20+ minutes who can fill up the stat sheet. He’s a no-brainer as long as Kerr gives him minutes.
Sit ‘Em
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
$3,500
Ownership: 5% – 15%
NAW can be an appealing click, but the role is not there currently. Across the first three games, he’s averaging 19.3 minutes, down from his regular-season 24.1 MPG for the Timberwolves. His production is on the same downward trend as his minutes. He scored as many points in two of the three games as I did: 0.
His 35% shooting percentage will not get it done with the lack of other stats. His only ceiling game was in a blowout; predicting those is not easy. His floor is too low to have him in lineups.
Miles McBride
$3,300
Ownership: 2.5% – 12.5%
McBride’s efficiency is deceptive in this series for the Knicks, but it will not last. He is shooting 61.5% from the field and 50% from 3. Even with that hot magma, he’s never surpassed a 5x value. He’s only averaging 2.7 shots per game. A player needs more usage to find a ceiling outcome (barring injury). A 1 rebound, .7 assist, and .7 steal per game average make him rely on putting the ball in the hoop to hit an optimal outcome. I’ll let my competition make that mistake.
Fade of the Main Slate
Trayce Jackson-Davis
$3,600
Ownership: 2.5% – 7.5%
“Starter” Trayce Jackson-Davis looks like value at first glance for the Warriors. The rotation tells a different story. He logged zero minutes in Game 1 and only logged 19 and 11 since. Like McBride, his 90% usage is unsustainable and can not be relied upon. His counting stats could be worse (six rebounds, three steals), but the lack of minutes caps his ceiling.
While he may enjoy the tip-off, he will not close in tight games, and the Warriors will rely on Kevon Looney in key situations or Draymond Green if he doesn’t get ejected or foul out. Jackson-Davis is a high-risk trap the field will make due to seeing a Green Check mark before the game, confirming he is starting. Don’t make that mistake.
Here’s our lineup for Saturday. Make sure to find us at x.com/totalapexmedia and share a screenshot if you hit big.
