The AFC Championship will be one to watch for Fantasy Football, as there are plenty of players to put in lineups or avoid. It is going to be tough since the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs don’t have any singular pass catcher or rusher to gravitate toward. Touchdown equity will be key, along with volume on their respective offenses. But to win, you will need enough upside plays at a lower salary.
Bills vs. Chiefs DFS Start ‘Ems
Here are a few of the players that we are leaning on heavily in this game. These players are in a good spot to put together a solid performance and have a favorable matchup.
Khalil Shakir ($5.7K DraftKings; $6.4K Fanduel)
Khalil Shakir has been Allen’s most consistent and reliable target out of their hodge-podge receiving core. The last time he faced Kansas City, Shakir had 8 catches for 70 yards and has been a PPR darling for fantasy football, whether it was redraft or daily. In the slot, the Bills’ receiver, along with Curtis Samuel, will likely be facing off against Chamarri Connor as their nickel corner for the Chiefs.
Trent McDuffie and the combo of Jaylen Watson/ Joshua Williams will likely cover the likes of Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins on the outside. Shakir has had one of the best catch rates in the NFL this past season, so no reason to not trust him now. Against the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round, he had 6 catches for 67 yards and is a staple of their screen/ underneath passing game.
Travis Kelce ($6K DraftKings; $6.8K Fanduel)
We saw vintage Travis Kelce last week, as he had 7 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round. Last time against Buffalo, he was held to 2 catches for 8 yards. However, this is the playoffs. It would be shocking if Kelce wasn’t an impact player for this game. The Mahomes-Kelce connection will be a must in this game if they want a shot at a 3-Peat.
Bills vs. Chiefs DFS Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side of things, here are a few of the players we are sitting in this one.
DeAndre Hopkins ($4.7K DraftKings; $5.6K Fanduel)
The veteran pass catcher who was traded from the Tennessee Titans has been almost phased out as a top receiver. Rookie Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown now a few weeks removed from injury, and Justin Watson have been somewhat more involved on a down-to-down basis. This same sentiment can also be said about Juju Smith-Schuster. Deandre Hopkins had no catches last week against his former team, the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. The vet DHop hasn’t had more than 5 catches since November. If anything, Worthy is more of a start out of their receivers.
Amari Cooper ($4.1K DraftKings; $5.1K Fanduel)
Same with DHop, Amari Cooper has been a no-show in this offense other than one week in December after he was traded from the Cleveland Browns. The other four receivers mentioned for Buffalo have seen more snaps than the veteran pass-catcher. His only big game was against the Los Angeles Rams indoors, so in the winter elements outdoors at Arrowhead, I don’t see him making a huge splash on the stat sheet after a no-catch game against the Ravens in Buffalo last week in the Divisional Round.
Total Apex Lock of the Game
Josh Allen ($7.5K DraftKings; $8.7K Fanduel)
If the Bills want to beat the Chiefs like last time and finally get a shot at a Superbowl, Josh Allen will have to be the reason why they win. Buffalo will likely use him in the power run game down near the red zone and he will have most of the goal-line touchdown equity in this Joe Brady-run Bills offense.
Total Apex Fade of the Game
Patrick Mahomes ($6K DraftKings; $7.7K Fanduel)
Patrick Mahomes could dice up the Bills secondary, but at the same time, it may be more of a conservative approach. So far this year, he has not really connected many deep shots to his playmakers and if Buffalo stops their run game, then Mahomes might not be the best pick for fantasy.
In comparison to Allen, I could see the Chiefs still win this game due to other factors like special teams or on defense. Kansas City’s Mahomes hasn’t had to do a whole lot in terms of fantasy this year.
Conclusion
Both offenses have the ability to run the ball, have an above-average offensive line, and have All-Pro quarterback play from the AFC. The issue for daily fantasy for this game is they can spread defenses out with so many different options in the passing game, along with a rushing attack. Besides a few exceptions, it’s pick your poison since most of the players are priced similarly to each other. The Chiefs do have a disadvantage with both Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco sort of struggling yardage-wise.
Buffalo rotates their backs, so it’s hard to predict if it’s James Cook, Ray Davis, or Ty Johnson having a big day. Cook is the front runner and does get enough work as a pass catcher to still have a decent floor regardless. Both defenses’ strength is the front seven, as they will look to limit the run game, including quarterback scrambles from Allen and Mahomes.
For DFS analysis on the NFC Conference Championship between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles, check back here on Total Apex Fantasy for more.
