This is one of the two stellar week 15 matchups and potential Super Bowl preview, as the 10-3 Buffalo Bills travel to the motor city to face the 12-1 Detroit Lions. Buffalo has already wrapped up the AFC East divisional crown and needs to keep winning to keep pace with the Chiefs to have a shot as the top seed in the AFC. Detroit has clinched a playoff spot and also needs to keep winning to hold off the Vikings for the NFC North title. This game may be available as a single-game contest but is for sure part of the Sunday 4:25 PM only and the late Sunday-Monday contests.
Our DFS write-ups are designed to spotlight some core plays to help you build a unique DFS lineup within your single game or main slate entries. In creating a successful lineup, we research and find positional values to see where you can save money and players with projected low ownership who can pay 2x-2.5x of their listed DFS salary. Finally, with this being a stand-alone slate for most contestants, we will try to find a combination of players that will fit within the salary cap.
Bills vs. Lions DFS Start ‘Ems
Here are a few of the players we are heavily leaning on in this game. These players are in a good spot to put together a solid performance in a favorable DFS matchup.
David Montgomery ($7k DraftKings and $7.7k Fanduel)
Statistically, the best way to attack the Bills is on the ground, as they rank just 21st in fantasy points allowed to running backs. David Montgomery continues to get the volume and is always a threat in the red zone. Montgomery is averaging 21.5 touches per game in his last two, and across the last four, he is at 17.15 points per game. We also save $300 by using Montgomery over Jahmyr Gibbs, and that savings may be crucial with us wanting to roster Josh Allen. You can not go wrong choosing Gibbs, but the deciding factor for us was the DFS price tag.
Khalil Shakir ($6.1k DraftKings and $7k Fanduel)
Khalil Shakir has been a top-25 fantasy wide receiver since week 7 with a 24.7% target share. Last week, his 78% snap rate was his highest of the season, which resulted in 22.1 fantasy points. Detroit is bottom five in receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to slot wideouts. Overall Shakir comes in as the PPR WR22, putting him inside the WR2 conversation. Couple the fact that he is tied to Josh Allen, and Shakir enters the auto-start conversation. At his DFS price tag, he has a strong probability to pay off 2x his salary.
Bills vs. Lions DFS Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side, here are a few of the players we recommend sitting in this one.
Tim Patrick ($4.3k DraftKings and $5.3k Fanduel)
This sit recommendation is based on statistical probability. Last week, Tim Patrick scored 2 touchdowns on six catches, good for 22.30 fantasy points. In his previous five games, Patrick had a total of 25.1 fantasy points. We are betting on his output to regress the norm, especially with him being the sixth option in the Lions offense. Rostering Patrick in DFS builds this week feels like we are chasing points, making him a no-go for us in week 15.
Ray Davis ($4.7k DraftKings and $5.3k Fanduel)
Ray Davis certainly has a great salary as a cheap DFS flex play, but last week, he had zero fantasy points. That was a bit surprising after his 11-63-1 stat line against the 49ers in week 13. Then we factor in the stout Lions rush defense that ranks sixth in fantasy points to running backs and fifth overall in rush defense. Since week nine, Detriot has been ranked top 12 in explosive runs allowed, we simply can not use Davis as a punt play in our builds.
Total Apex Lock of the Game
Josh Allen ($8.5k DraftKings and $9.5k Fanduel)
Another single-game DFS write and another Josh Allen DFS lock play to anchor our DFS build. He will be the chalk play but we can find value at the other positions. We certainly do not expect another 54.88 fantasy point performance but Allen is set up nicely this week again. Allen is the overall QB3 and is in the game with the highest implied game total on the week 15 main slate. The Lions are decent against opposing quarterbacks, ranking 12th in fantasy points allowed and this game has the potential for a shoot-out.
Total Apex Fade of the Game
Sam LaPorta ($4.4k DraftKings and $6k Fanduel)
Sam LaPorta’s numbers have improved with two double-digit fantasy outputs in the last four games. However, he still sits at the overall TE14, which is way below where his ADP was. The Bills defend the tight end position very well. Versus the tight end, Buffalo is 3rd in fantasy points allowed, top 5 in receiving yards allowed, and top 5 in yards per reception. If you roster LaPorta in your builds, temper the expected output!
Conclusion
These recommendations are designed to give you players we feel will be low-owned and good value and help you create a unique DFS build. We want a DFS lineup that is different from the masses and most likely made with an optimizer. Each week in DFS, your pay line for FanDuel is approximately 125 points, which equates to 2x per player. For example, a player with a $4500 salary needs 9 points. DraftKings pay line is approximately 134 points, which is 2.5x per player. So, for a $4500 salary, that player would need 9.9 points.
Also, consider Jared Goff as a pivot play from Josh Allen and pair him with a Buffalo wideout, which still gives you exposure to Allen. Amari Cooper (5.9k FD/$5.3k DK represents tremendous value for those wanting to roster a more stud-heavy DFS build.
