Happy Thanksgiving to all our readers, we are very appreciative of your support! This is our week 13 DFS Holiday Slate Edition. Today we will spotlight some core plays to help you build your Thursday-only DFS lineups. In creating a successful lineup, we research and find positional values to see where you can save money and players with projected low ownership who can pay 2x-2.5x of their listed DFS salary.
You bank on getting a minimum of 20 points from the quarterback position. You can not miss this position. Expect to pay up at the tight-end position. You can save at other spots. A successful strategy can be the QB-TE stack. These core plays will give you a nucleus for your DFS build.
These recommendations are designed to give you players we feel will be low-owned, good value, and help you create a unique DFS build. We want a DFS lineup different from the masses and most likely made with an optimizer. Look for single or smaller slates to build your DFS bankroll. Expecting to hit the Sunday million jackpot regularly is not statistically sound.
DFS Start ‘Ems
Here are a few of the players we are heavily leaning on today. These players are in a good spot to have a solid performance and a favorable DFS matchup.
Caleb Williams ($5.3k DraftKings and $7.2k Fanduel)
At quarterback, we are going to ride the somewhat resurgence of Caleb Williams. In the two games since Thomas Brown became the Bear’s new play-caller, Williams is averaging 23.o7 fantasy points per game and rushed for a total of 103 yards. In those two weeks, Caleb Williams is QB10, with 571 yards passing and two touchdowns. The match-up for Williams is not great, as the Lions rank 6th in fantasy points allowed to the position but Chicago is projected to be in a negative game script. The Bears are a double-digit underdog with a slate-high 48.5 implied game total.
Josh Jacobs ($7k DraftKings and $7.8k Fanduel)
We can save some salary and go into the mid-range proceed DFS tier for our running back recommendation. Josh Jacobs is coming off a 106-yard, three-rushing touchdown performance, which resulted in a season-high 31.6 fantasy points. We know that you can not rely on the touchdown output in fantasy, but the volume is king. Jacobs is seeing 20.5 rush attempts and another 2-3 targets per game in his last four games. Jacobs is the overall fantasy RB9, making him a solid DFS start for us in the Thanksgiving Day Main Slate.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($7.5k DraftKings and $8.4k Fanduel)
Jahmyr Gibbs took off last week, with David Montgomery missing time with a shoulder injury. Gibbs, with a 64% rushing share, produced 99 all-purpose yards, two touchdowns, and 23.4 fantasy points. While Montgomery remains the goal-line back, using Gibbs as our DFS stud gives us one of the top upside players on the Thanksgiving Day slate. David Montgomery was listed as a DNP at Monday’s walkthrough, according to the Lions’ official site, and if he does suit up, we then have the prospect of Montgomery being limited due to the short week.
DFS Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side, here are a few players we recommend sitting in today’s slate.
Tommy DeVito ($4.5k DraftKings and $6.7k Fanduel)
If you watched Tommy DeVito play quarterback last week, you know why he is in this spot. Versus the Buccaneer’s defense in week 12, DeVito passed for 189 yards, zero touchdowns, four sacks, and 10.76 fantasy points. What saved his day from being a total disaster was the 32 rushing yards. The match-up on paper is good as Dallas is 28th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, but DeVito will be nowhere near our DFS builds on Thursday. We would rather spend up some at quarterback and find value at the skill positions.
D’Andre Swift ($6k DraftKings and $6.7k Fanduel)
This recommendation is based on the matchup, the Lions rank 2nd in fantasy points allowed to running backs and fifth overall versus the rush. Swift has been uneven in his last four starts, has single-digit points in two of them, and is averaging 10.15 points per game. Swift has also been getting vultured at the goal line by Roschon Johnso who has had five rushing touchdowns in the Bear’s last seven games. Swift, on the other hand, has just one score since week nine.
Raheem Mostert ($4.7k DraftKings and $5k Fanduel)
Let’s start with this: 2 for 5, 3 for -2, and 0 for 0, those are Raheem Mostert’s last three rushing lines. Not much more needs to be said, but further, Mostert is the overall RB54, last week, he had an 8% rush share and scored just 0.5 fantasy points in his last two games. Mostert also may be losing his grip on the Miami RB2 job, as he was outcarried by Jaylen Wright 7-2 in week 12 versus the Patriots.
Total Apex Stud of the Day
De’Von Achane ($7.7k DraftKings and $9k Fanduel)
Achane is tied for the highest DFS salary on the skate for a reason. Achane is the overall PPR RB6 this season, and if he keeps his current pace, he could push to finish as high as RB2 or RB3. Besides possibly Jonnu Smith, no one has benefitted more from the return and solid play of Tua Tagovailoa. In Tua’s five games, Achane has averaged 19.42 fantasy points, 17.4 touches, and six total touchdowns. That five-game pace would put him as the overall RB2.
Total Apex Dud of the Day
Malik Nabers ($7.1k DraftKings and $8k Fanduel)
It is so hard to place Malik Nabers in the dud or fade category because the target share is there. In his last five starts, Nabors has averaged 10.2 targets per game. However, the problem is the fantasy production. Last week, Nabers was at 9.4 points in FanDuel scoring, and in the last five, he is at 8.86. At his $8k DFS price point, we need at least 16 points to pay 2x his salary. The Giant’s quarterback room is a dumpster fire, with the release of Daniel Jones and Tommy DeVito now starting. If you are going to spend up at wide receiver, then use St. Brown or Lamb, they are just safer options.
Stack of the Week
Recommended Stacks: Jared Goff-Amon-Ra St. Brown/ Caleb Williams-DJ Moore/Jordan Love-Christian Watson
Additional Starts: Rico Dowdle, Rome Odunze, Jonnu Smith
Conclusion
Each week in DFS, your pay line for FanDuel is approximately 125 points, which equates to 2x per player. For example, a player with a $4500 salary needs 9 points. DraftKings pay line is approximately 134 points, which is 2.5x per player. So, for a $4500 salary, that player would need 9.9 points. Remember that our sit recommendations are based on a DFS perspective to help provide you with a unique lineup build, relative to the masses. We want to offer you player options that are projected for low ownership.
