Wide receiver has been the most injury-prone position in the NFL this season. Bye-mageddon 1 of 2 is here in week 12 with the Bills, Falcons, Bengals, Jags, Saints, and Jets on a bye week, leaving a treacherous path for fantasy managers to navigate. Let’s look at some wide receivers ranked outside the top 10 players this week that I believe will overperform their rankings, or I see as underproducers to keep on the bench. LFG!
Baller Wide Receivers Week 12
Quentin Johnston – Los Angeles Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens
In his last three games, Johnston has averaged 15.1 PPR fantasy points per game. That’s better than players like Ceedee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, and DeAndre Hopkins. He’s just a few fractional points behind fantasy studs Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua. Johnston is currently ranked as wide receiver 29 on Fantasy Pros, and he has a very beatable matchup this week against the Baltimore Ravens’ last-ranked pass defense.
The Baltimore Ravens travel to SoFi Stadium in LA to play the Chargers after a close road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in week 11. Last week, the Ravens pass defense held Russell Wilson and the Steelers pass catchers out of the endzone, leading to 6 field goals by kicker Chris Boswell. However, the Steelers WR1 George Pickens had a nice game with 8 catches for 89 yards on the outside, the same position that Johnston usually lines up.
The Steelers’ slot receivers did nothing in that game, so if Chargers’ wide receiver Ladd McConkey gets the attention in the slot he should, it could be a big day for Johnston to line up wide against the struggling Baltimore corners. Johnston has had some trouble with drops in the past, but if he can keep his focus this week and Herbert can get him the football with good accuracy, expect Quentin Johnston to crack the top 20 at the position this week.
Special sauce on the side note for Johnston this week – his QB, Justin Herbert is either equivalent or better in every statistical category in his career thus far than Peyton Manning was at the same point. Let that sink in… who do you think is a better QB, the one-dimensional QB Russ who was still able to feed his main wide receiver the ball against the Ravens last week, or Herbert who is on a Hall of Fame pace? Me too. Give me Herbert to help his main squeeze Johnston score over 20 fantasy points this week in PPR format.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
The days of the Seattle Seahawks being a run-first team are over. Geno Smith is slangin’ that thang all over the yard and in the last six weeks JSN has been his top target, outpacing teammate DK Metcalf in targets, catches, and fantasy points in PPR formats.
This week, the Arizona Cardinals are coming to Puget Sound to pound on the Seahawks in an NFC West grudge match with a 50% chance of rain around kickoff, fading away as the game goes. Winds are only projected to be around 5 mph, so it should be a fine game for passing. Look for Arizona to keep deep threat Metcalf in check by preventing big plays over the top using Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker to help in double coverage. This leaves the middle of the field behind the linebackers exposed to getting painted with targets for JSN in the intermediate passing game.
Smith-Njigba is ranked as wide receiver 14 and has fallen from wide receiver 12 since the beginning of the week, spawning me to include him in this segment. JSN ain’t no faller in my house! He’s a baller this week and will crack the top 10 this week! BONUS COVERAGE: slot receiver Tyler Lockett could rise from the dead and have a nice day.
Tank Dell – Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
It’s true, the Tennessee Titans quietly still have the best pass defense in the league, allowing just under 165 passing yards per game. What does that tell us? The Titans probably don’t give up any big plays, right? RIGHT!!??!? Wrong! Well, kind of… The Tennessee Titans don’t give up big plays to the opposing team’s #1 WR. The Titans have been excellent this season at shutting down the best receiver on the other team, but they have given up big plays to #2 options and slot receivers. Those plays have also resulted in touchdowns.
Despite having the top passing defense, the Titans have given up 15 passing touchdowns this season, putting them square in the middle of the pack with the rest of the NFL defenses. Last week in Nashville, TN the Titans held the matchup-proof Vikings WR1 Justin Jefferson to just 6 catches for 81 yards but allowed Jordan Addison to get loose on an intermediate pass that went 47 yards for a touchdown. Addison also finished with the same number of targets as Jefferson but had some drops and bad throws from Darnold that dinged his stats.
Tank Dell is ranked as wide receiver 30 this week in PPR scoring. In the last three games, he has averaged over 8 targets for 5 catches and 73 yards per game and is due for some positive touchdown regression. The Texans need to win every game they can to compete with the top teams in the AFC for playoff seeding, so look for them to pour it on in this game against the Titans. Watch for the Titans to try and lock down Nico Collins (good luck) and leave some open spaces for Dell to operate. Play-action passes with Joe Mixon will be a huge factor in this game, and Dell should reap the benefits.
Faller Wide Receivers Week 12
Ceedee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
The Dallas Carnival of Errors goes on tour this week in our nation’s capital. Tickets are expensive for a show that you don’t want to see. Ceedee Lamb has looked off this year, even with Dak at QB. He’s not running crisp routes, he’s pouting on the sidelines, and this week he will have two different quarterbacks in this game. Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy alluded to getting some packages in place for Trey Lance this week, and he felt bad for not giving him some playing time in the 4th quarter last week.
Lamb is averaging just 13.5 PPR fantasy points over his last two games with Cooper Rush at quarterback, and this week he faces the Commanders 5th ranked passing defense. Lamb is ranked as wide receiver 13 this week on Fantasy Pros, and that’s too rich for my blood. You probably have to start him if he plays, but if you happen to have some equivalent options that have better matchups or situations on offense, you could probably sit him and survive your week. It is worth noting that Lamb was limited in practice with back and foot injuries that are not rumored to be serious.
The Cowboys have the 27th-ranked defense in the league and can’t get off the field. The Cowboys are ranked 28th in time of possession in the NFL, so the offense spends extra time on the sidelines, not doing anything for our fantasy teams. Brandin Cooks could return this week from his knee surgery, which could cut into Lamb’s target volume. The Commanders have lost back-to-back games and are hungry and angry to get back on the winning track to continue chasing a wild card spot in the playoffs.
Devonta Smith – Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams
The Philadelphia Eagles have evolved into a very run-centric offense in 2024, even with outstanding weapons at wide receiver in AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. The Eagles have run 630 plays on offense this season and 364 of those plays (almost 58%) have been running plays. In the past three weeks, Devonta Smith has only averaged 9.7 PPR fantasy points on 5 targets. Devonta Smith is ranked as wide receiver 19 this week, and that is way too high, given his recent production.
That ranking makes him a wide receiver two in fantasy lineups, and he has barely been returning WR3/FLEX value in the last three weeks. Now, he is nursing a hamstring injury that will limit him in practice this week and could impact his game status. The matchup of the Eagles versus the suspect Rams passing defense is tasty, but we need to temper expectations until the data trends of this Philly offense shift more towards using their wide receivers. Look for other options to start at wide receiver or your flex this week.
Wide Receiver Conclusion
There are quite a few exploitable defenses for wide receivers in week 12, so make sure you try to get a piece of that action wherever you can. Some of the best matchups include wide receivers playing against the Ravens, Chargers, Colts, Patriots, Cowboys, Cardinals, Browns, Commanders, and Giants. Target these opponents heavily and have a heavenly week 12 with fantasy dubbs across the boards! SLEEPER ALERT: Jameson Williams returns top 15 value on week 12 ranking of wide receiver 27. Good luck!
