Week 11 brings us an important NFC West divisional matchup as the 5-4 Seattle Seahawks take on the 4-5 San Francisco 49ers. Both teams are very much alive, with just a game and a half separating first place from last in the division. San Francisco defeated Tampa Bay in week 10, 23-20 in the return of Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers have now won three of four after their 1-2 start. Seattle, this week, comes off their bye having lost two straight and four of five. Seattle should get the top receiving threat back this week with the expected return of DK Metcalf.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers DFS Start ‘Ems
Here are a few of the players we heavily lean on in this game. These players are in a good spot to have a solid performance and a favorable DFS matchup.
DK Metcalf ($6.5k DraftKings and $8k Fanduel)
Metcalf was back as a full participant at Thursday’s practice, so he is poised to return this week. Metcalf is just the overall PPR WR26, but keep in mind he has missed two games. DK averages 8.71 targets, and 16.2 yards per catch, and is a huge red zone threat for the Seattle offense. Additionally, there is extra motivation from the rift between him and 49ers corner Deommadore Lenoir. We are very comfortable starting Metcalf this week at a reasonable DFS salary.
Deebo Samuel Jr. ($6.8k DraftKings and $8.2k Fanduel)
We are very encouraged by Deebo Samuel’s usage last week, not so much the touches, but how he was deployed. We saw usage from various formations with return with the insertion of Christian McCaffrey. In week 10, Samuel saw 6 targets and had 3 carries. That is 7 in his last two games and he only needs one for a house call. The addition of McCaffrey forces the defensive attention away from him, and Seattle’s defense is bottom four in fantasy points and receiving yards allowed to perimeter wide-outs.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers DFS Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side, here are a few players we recommend sitting in this one.
Kenneth Walker III ($7k DraftKings and $7.8k Fanduel)
A bit of a risky call here, but we are sitting Walker this week. In his last five starts, Walker has one 20-point game and in his last two, he is averaging 9.35 fantasy points per game. The matchup is fair, with San Francisco ranked 14th in points allowed to the position, but they are eighth versus the run.
Ricky Pearsall ($4.9k DraftKings and $5.8k Fanduel)
Another tough call here, as Pearsall is coming last week’s 4-73-1 stat line for 15.3 fantasy points. However, he is most likely the fourth option at best in the 49er’s passing game. It feels like we are chasing the points by using Pearsall in DFS this week. As with all the San Francisco wideouts, this is a good matchup against the Seahawk’s below-average pass defense. We just feel there are better DFS options, you can spend up and get Samuel or even Jauan Jennings.
Total Apex Lock of the Game
Brock Purdy ($6.6k DraftKings and $8.4k Fanduel)
Brock Purdy was fantastic last week passing for 353 yards, two touchdowns, and 26.82 fantasy points. Purdy comes in as the overall fantasy QB8 and has a favorable matchup with a Seahawks defense ranked 20th in points allowed to the position. The return of McCaffrey only benefits Purdy’s upside, as he gets another terrific option in the passing game. Now, add in that Seattle is bottom 11 in passing yards allowed and yards per attempt and we have our DFS lock. Purdy being priced as the fourth-highest DFS-priced quarterback on the main slate tells you a lot!
Total Apex Fade of the Game
Geno Smith ($5.7k DraftKings and$7.6k Fanduel)
We like Seattle to cover this game from a betting standpoint, but we have to temper Geno Smith’s overall fantasy output. We can not ignore the 49ers defensive metrics. They are a top-six defensive in pass rating allowed and yards per attempt. The volume of the Seattle passing game helps, the Seahawk’s offense ranks top three in neutral pace and pass rate, but we have to temper expectations based on the matchup.
Conclusion
Christian McCaffrey goes without saying as a must-start this week and his volume was where we expected in his return. We like the underdog Seahawks to play well, which provides the opportunity for a potential back-and-forth game. The 48 implied game total is among the highest on the week 11 main slate. Additional keynote, San Francisco is ranked second in total offense and Seattle ranks top three in neutral passing rate.
