Ballers and Fallers Week 11: Running Backs

Call it what you want – sit/start, fades and locks, love/hate, studs and duds, they all give you similar information highlighting different players each week. Welcome to Ballers and Fallers! If the average fantasy league size is 10 teams, I look at running backs ranked outside the top 10 in PPR format who I think will either outperform or underwhelm their consensus rankings. I look at their situations with injuries, teammates, and weather forecasts. Then, I examine their matchups to determine my recommendations.

Baller Running Backs for Week 11

Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints

I know what you’re thinking – Nick Chubb hasn’t been the same player since he returned to action in week 7 after last year’s devastating knee injury, only averaging 2.7 yards per carry. You would be correct, but what if I told you that the Cleveland Browns were limiting Chubb’s reps in those three games to see how his surgically repaired knee would respond heading into their bye week?

What if I told you that Chubb is healthy coming out of that bye week taking on a Saints rushing defense giving up up 5.2 yards per carry and has allowed 14 rushing touchdowns this season? This is the game the old Nick Chubb comes back. Don’t miss it.

Josh Jacobs – Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

The Green Bay Packers are coming off their bye week and traveling to Soldier Field angry after their last game ended in a bitter home defeat against the Detroit Lions in week 9. Jacobs will have fresh legs going into a matchup with the Bears’ 24th-ranked rushing defense on a day that is forecasted to be breezy with a 20% chance of rain in the afternoon.

Aside from great conditions for running the football down the throat of a susceptible defense, Jacobs is averaging over 4.8 yards per carry and 6.7 yards per reception. With 24 targets through nine games and four total touchdowns – look for Jacobs to be busy on Sunday.

J.K. Dobbins – Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Dobbins is coming off of a slightly down week against the Miami Dolphins, who came to SoFi Stadium and held Dobbins to just 50 yards rushing on 15 carries. Fellow running back Gus Edwards returned from injury for the Chargers last week and averaged 5.5 YPC against Miami.

Dobbins will be ceding some carries to Edwards moving forward, but don’t let that deter you from starting him against the Cincinnati Bengals this week. The Bengals’ defense is giving up over 127 rushing yards and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game. Dobbins is also utilized in the Chargers passing game averaging 3.1 targets per game.

Faller Running Backs for Week 11

Najee Harris – Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens

Harris is in line for a tough day at the office on Sunday when the Baltimore Ravens make their way to the Steel City. The Ravens are bringing their number one rushing defense in the league, allowing just 73 rushing yards per game. The Ravens’ defense has given up seven rushing touchdowns through 10 games.

Najee has just 3 total touchdowns on the season, but he does average a respectable 4.1 YPC and 71.6 rushing yards per game. The Ravens are three-point favorites in this game, and if they get an early lead, Najee Harris’s rushing attempts could take a ding from a negative game script if the Steelers go pass-heavy.

Tony Pollard – Tennessee Titans vs. Minnesota Vikings

Pollard will face the second-best rushing defense in the NFL on Sunday in Nashville. The Minnesota Vikings are only allowing 79 total rushing yards per game, and have only allowed 4 rushing touchdowns through nine games. Titans QB Will Levis will be back in their starting lineup after battling a shoulder injury.

You can bet that Brian Flores, the aggressive defensive coordinator for the Vikings, will make it a priority to shut down the running game and force the turnover-prone Levis to try and beat them with his arm. Levis has also struggled to distribute to his pass catchers. The Vikings’ eyes will be on Tony Pollard on Sunday, so we should look elsewhere.

Commanders RBs – Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Brian Robinson Jr. has been out for two weeks with a hamstring injury. The Washington Commanders have a short week of preparation as they travel to Philadelphia for Thursday Night Football against the Eagles. Robinson was removed from the Commanders’ injury report on Wednesday afternoon and is ready to go back to his starting running back role. There is a chance he could tweak that hammy if he hasn’t had sufficient time to heal, as hamstring injuries often keep players out for longer.

Robinson could see a reduction in his typical workload if the coaching staff chooses to ease him back into the lineup. That could mean more touches at running back for Austin Ekeler. With Robinson out last week, Ekeler had a 2-touchdown performance against a stout Steelers run defense that kept him in check otherwise. Ekeler’s fantasy points were skewed higher by 118 return yards and those two scores.

As tempting as it will be to start Ekeler in your running back spot again after a productive week, he is going up against the Eagles’ defense allowing the 5th fewest rushing yards per game, and given up just 6 rushing touchdowns through nine games. You can find better options than the Commanders’ running backs in week 11.

Final Running Back Thoughts

Week 11 begins the make-or-break time for the fantasy football playoffs. This is when more than ever you want to maximize point totals and secure yourself the highest seed possible, or merely punch your ticket to the dance. Making the best decisions with the running backs you choose to roll with is a huge factor this time of year. As the weather gets colder, teams tend to lean on their running backs more in November and December, putting more emphasis on the position than in previous months. Start your studs, but hedge your bets by making wise RB2 and RB3/flex decisions.