The 6-2 Buffalo Bills travel to South Florida to take on the 2-5 Miami Dolphins. Buffalo sits atop the AFC East after winning their third straight game in Seattle last week. The Bills looked dominant beating the Seahawks 31-10 and will look to sweep the Dolpjins within the division. Miami got Tua Tagovailoa back in Week 8 but lost by one point to Arizona 28-27. The Dolphins have lost two straight and five of six and are in desperate need of a win to keep any playoff hopes alive. Buffalo defeated Miami in the first meeting back in Week 2 31-10.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins DFS Start ‘Ems
Here are a few of the players that we are leaning on heavily in this game. These players are in a good spot to put together a solid performance in a favorable matchup.
Miami Dolphins RB De’Von Achane ($6.7k DraftKings and $7.8k Fanduel)
We went with Achane here for two reasons, the DFS upside goes without saying but the decent history versus the Bills is the big one. In week two he had his best game of the season against them scoring 22.5 fantasy points. In 2023, Achane scored 3 touchdowns in two games versus the Bills defense and benefits greatly from Tua Tagovailoa’s return. Buffalo also ranks just 29th in fantasy points allowed to the running back position, start De’Von Achane in Week 9!
Buffalo Bills WR Keon Coleman ($5.8k DraftKings and $6k Fanduel)
Keon Coleman gives us both salary relief and upside. Since the arrival of Amari Cooper, Coleman is averaging 16.5 fantasy points, seven targets, and a touchdown across two games. That, coupled with his salary makes him a good bet to hit 2x his DFS salary. The Bills-Dolphins come with an implied game total of 49.5, so we want DFS shares of this contest.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins DFS Sit ‘Ems
On the flip side, here are a few players we recommend sitting in this one.
Miami Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert ($6k DraftKings and $6.4k Fanduel)
Raheem Mostert scored 2 touchdowns last week, which skewed his metrics. Mostert had just a 46% snap rate and 10 touches for 30 total yards. That type of touchdown production coupled with his usage rate is not sustainable. We recommend sitting him in DFS even with his 67% red zone snap share. Beware, that you can not rely on touchdown equity with a low snap and touch rate.
Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle ($5.5k DraftKings and $6.2k Fanduel)
In two games with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa, Waddle only managed only a 14.7% target share. He is overall WR63 in PPR scoring, which puts him outside must start category. We are keeping in mind the bad quarterback situation but Waddle is averaging just 5.23 fantasy points in his last six games and faces Buffalo’s defense ranked 7th in points allowed to the position. Waddle is also priced as such because he plays second fiddle to Tyreek Hill in the Miami passing offense.
Total Apex Lock of the Game
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen ($7.7k DraftKings and $9k Fanduel)
Josh Allen gives you the floor you need in DSF, especially for our lock position. Allen is the overall QB4 in fantasy and averaging 19.9 fantasy points per game. His touchdown to interception ratio is 14-1 and another three scores on the ground. In his last three games, Allen is at 22.6 points per game, and with the addition of Amari Cooper, Allen has multiple weapons at his disposal. In 13 career games versus Miami, Allen has 3502 passing yards and 34 touchdowns. Josh Allen is our DFS lock in this single-game slate.
Total Apex Fade of the Game
Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa ($6.2k DraftKings and $7.3k Fanduel)
Yes, we know you are most likely using Tua in this game but beware of the matchup. The Bills defense is top 10 in yards allowed per attempt and passer rating. Buffalo is also top 15 in success per dropback. In his first meeting with the Bills, Tua was intercepted 3 times and had a 56.7 passer rating with just 5.8 yards per attempt. Tagovailoa’s passing metrics are also in the bottom half of the league among qualifying quarterbacks, making him a DFS fade for us.
Conclusion
Buffalo versus Miami features an implied total of 49, the second-highest on the DFS slate. This is a game that you want to have a piece of if you are entering any main slate contests. Josh Allen and De’Von Achane are our top choices, with Tyreek Hill and Khalil Shakir also start-worthy options.
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