Sleeper City. It sounds like a mattress store, but it’s an imaginary place built by data and educated opinion, from yours truly. Building quality roster depth is crucial in managing a winning fantasy team.
In PPR (point per reception) formatted leagues, wide receivers are arguably the most important position on your roster. Let’s head over to the Wide Receiver section at Sleeper City to do some bargain shopping to prepare for 2024 fantasy drafts and find some nice sleepers.
How Do You Identify a Sleeper?
The first place to look at a WR prospect for your fantasy squad is the price tag. The players with household names like Tyreek Hill, Ceedee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, and A.J. Brown cost you big bucks in the first round. Most fantasy managers have a big choice to make in the first round between a star WR and a three-down RB to build their roster around.
That is a player we all need to pay big dividends, at the high pricepoint we pay for their services. Players in the top 10 are typically known commodities who should perform at a high level, barring any major injury setbacks. You’re not going to find those big names at Sleeper City.
Sleeper City focuses on players you can get in later rounds of your drafts. Players who might be diamonds in the rough – flying underneath the radar, primed to break out and have magical fantasy seasons. Let’s look at the price tags of players ranked outside the top 40.
There are two main lists to consider when identifying where players are ranked before your draft. One list is ADP (average draft position) and the other is their “rank”. There are many different fantasy websites out there, all with experts and they all have slightly different individual rankings based on their research and opinions.
Rankings are more subjective unless you use a service that compiles dozens of them together and averages them out, such as the expert consensus rankings from Fantasy Pros. A more data-driven way to determine draft value is by using ADP rankings. ADP uses real data from real drafts across several fantasy football platforms (Yahoo, ESPN, CBS, etc) to determine where fantasy managers are taking certain players.
If it’s early in the year, ADP data is collected mostly from mock drafts instead of real drafts. The closer you get to the start of the NFL season, the more accurate and updated the ADP rankings become. Now that we’ve walked down the isles at Sleeper City, let’s focus on a few players with outstanding value at their ADP.
An Eagles Receiver With Sleeper Value
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On Roto Wire, DeVonta Smith, WR for the Philadelphia Eagles is currently going 50th overall as the 24th WR off the board. Smith provides good value going in the 5th round of 10-team drafts (most common format) or early in the 4th round of 14-team leagues.
In Devonta Smith’s first three seasons in the league, not only has he been incredibly durable, only missing one game over that span, but he’s produced nice WR2 numbers. Smith has averaged almost five receptions and over 63 receiving yards per game in that span and amassed 19 touchdowns over three seasons.
The recent addition of Jahan Dotson to the Philadelphia WR corps should bode well for DeVonta Smith’s production. The Eagles have been searching for a solid WR3 option to pair with star A.J. Brown and Smith for the past three seasons.
Philadelphia should now run more three-wide receiver sets, drawing coverage away from Smith – so it’s a good bet his numbers will increase this season if everyone stays relatively healthy. A.J. Brown will still likely draw double teams, and TE Dallas Goedert should draw attention in short range and over the middle, leaving Smith with a little more room to operate for QB Jalen Hurts to find him all season long.
Depending on what slot you’re drafting from, don’t be afraid to reach a little for a player like DeVonta Smith. He is likely to outperform his ADP at his current price. If he falls to you in a draft slot where you don’t expect to have a chance to draft him, smash that draft button with confidence and enjoy your durable WR2 for the whole season.
His floor is high, so if you combine weekly consistency with several splashy touchdown games, and a possible increase in production from last season – fantasy managers could even be looking at low-end WR1 numbers if the Sleeper City cookie crumbles as it should.
Bear Down on Keenan Allen’s Sleeper Value
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Coming off one of the best statistical seasons of his career with the Chargers – new Chicago Bears WR Keenan Allen landed in a spot that could be extremely favorable to his fantasy value. Bears Rookie QB Caleb Williams is known for being incredibly accurate with his throws and evading trouble when the pocket breaks down.
At 32 years old, Keenan Allen has likely lost a step on his longer routes, but he is still a great short and intermediate-route runner with excellent hands. Both are perfect compliments to a rookie QB who will need to get the ball out of his hands quickly. Allen also has the experience to break off his routes and improvise when the pocket collapses and Caleb Williams starts to scramble.
On Fantasy Pros, Keenan Allen is currently going off the board at 76th overall and as the 32nd wide receiver. That’s terrific value for a player who put up the eighth most fantasy points for a WR in PPR leagues last year. Yes, there are some big names on the Bears’ offense this year, and it’s undetermined who will be the security blanket for QB Caleb Williams.
Arguments can be made for RB D’Andre Swift, TE Cole Kmet, or WR Keenan Allen. With Kmet likely being kept on the line to help in pass protection regularly, and Swift sharing time with fellow running backs Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, that leaves Keenan Allen as the quick-game pass catcher Caleb Williams will lean on more consistently.
Last season with the Chargers, Keenan Allen ran over 55% of his routes from the slot on 100% route participation. That means he’s always available on passing plays and with running over half his routes closer to the QB, out of the slot – Allen should be looked at early and often.
Last season Allen had a very robust 32% target share in the Chargers offense, and that number will regress this season – no doubt. However, if his catchable target rate of 76% from last year remains similar or goes up, he should produce numbers that warrant a higher draft pick, than his current ADP. Don’t miss this player on sale at Sleeper City.
Final Thoughts
There are many more sleeper candidates on the ADP rank sheets for you to pick from. There were a few more sleeper WRs that deserve to be written about. Washington Commander’s WR Terry McLaurin is the 31st receiver off the board and Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is being drafted as the 44th WR taken.
Both are excellent values at their draft cost. So is Carolina Panthers WR1 Diontae Jonson currently being taken as the 43rd – massive value there. Go forth and find your very own sleeper at wide receiver.
Look at a few websites and examine some stats. Compare those stats to where players are being drafted and what you think their value is or could be. Then, take yourself WR shopping at Sleeper City. Think of it like going antiquing or visiting garage sales. You’re looking for the best deals to get the biggest returns on your investment.
Value-based drafting is a great way to build a championship roster in any fantasy format, not just PPR redraft leagues. Value-based shopping of any kind helps put money back in your wallet. Finding sleepers in fantasy football helps put more winnings in your pocket.
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