Zay Jones is a seven-year veteran who was drafted in the second round by the Buffalo Bills in the 2017 NFL draft. Jones had signed a three-year, $24-million contract with the Jaguars in 2022, but the Jaguars cut him in the offseason, clearing over $6.5 million in cap space.
The Arizona Cardinals picked up Jones on a 1-year $2.25-million contract. Immediately, Jones figured 3rd into the depth chart, behind rookie Marvin Harrison Jr and Michael Wilson, with the potential for a WR2 position battle.
Jones’ start with the Jaguars was promising, earning 121 targets, 2nd most on the team, short of Christian Kirk and ahead of Evan Engram. After a successful 2022 campaign, there seemed to be a potential position battle between him and Kirk for WR1 duties, and after Week 1, Zay Jones looked like he might be the guy. However, it was all downhill from there, having missed eight games and never outpacing his Wk1 stat line.
Zay Jones: Recent Performance
Although the Jaguars cut him and Calvin Ridley loose in the offseason, Zay Jones averaged 8.7 DraftKings points per game in 2023. His 2022 campaign with the Jags was his career-2nd 100+ target season. In 2023, he finished fifth in team targets behind RB1 Travis Etienne, but on a per-game basis, he finished third, ahead of teammate Christian Kirk.
Jones has played a full season only three times in his seven years, with 2023 being his most injury-laden year. Jones has been a reliable, if unexciting, receiving option. He has averaged 10.6 yards per reception and never exceeded 11.7. Zay Jones brought in seven TDs at his best, but he has had two or fewer TDs in five years, including 2023.
Both of Jones’ 2023 TDs came in his third game. Although he appeared to have put Kirk far behind him after just one game last year, Kirk was the hero from that point on. Jones was serviceable in fantasy, but only for desperate teams.
More meaningful is his real-life NFL metrics and the reason the Jaguars inevitably ditched him. Even when healthy, all of Jones’ meaningful metrics have gone down year over year. Over two years, his TD rate catches per game and reception percentage have decreased. Over three consecutive years, his yards per touch have decreased.
Zay Jones as a Cardinal
Having drafted one of the greatest wide receiver prospects of all time in Harrison Jr, the Cardinal’s WR1 spot is locked out, and so is the second in the pecking order, with Trey McBride at tight end drawing so many looks.
Last year, both McBride and WR1 Marquise Brown drew in more than 100 targets. On a per-game basis, Wilson was the 2nd-most targeted WR and 3rd-most targeted player. Brown is out, but it’s moot with Harrison solidly on top. The WR2 position was not particularly fruitful in 2023. For reference, Jones earned 7.1 targets per game last year, while Wilson earned 4.5.
The Jaguars were a high-volume team in 2023 and will be in 2024. Jones has never been a particularly efficient player, relying mostly on volume to make an appreciable fantasy impact. An argument can be made that the Cardinals were a slow-paced offense with Murray out for the entire first half of the year.
However, if the ideal ceiling is WR2, Wilson had a consistent target volume even after Murray made his November debut. That’s also the ideal position, but not only is Jones unlikely to occupy the WR2 slot, most reports now indicate that Greg Dortch is ahead of Jones. As recently as last month, OurLads had Jones in on 3-wide sets, but that’s no longer the case.
Final Thoughts on Zay Jones
Zay Jones will be 29 years old on a contract that frees up the Cardinals to ditch him at any point. Recent reports have him playing second-fiddle to a four-year vet targeted only 41 times in 2023. Even in the ideal scenario in which Jones plays on 3-wide sets, he’ll be doing it on a low-volume offense with decreasing year-over-year metrics.
However, he’s mostly likely the fifth- or sixth-best receiver. He’s ownable in only the largest leagues, and even those still holding onto him in 12-team dynasty leagues need to cut ties and open up the slot to more valuable players.
Due to violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy, Zay Jones is suspended for the first 5 weeks of the NFL season.
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