Cole Kmet 2024 Fantasy Outlook: Breakout Year or Fantasy Dud?

Cole Kmet

Cole Kmet is one of the most intriguing young stars in the NFL. After being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL Draft, he has used his youth and unique skill set to climb the rankings of fantasy tight ends. While Kmet and the Chicago Bears haven’t been able to have the historic and successful season that they have wanted in the past, it may finally be here.

Cole Kmet Fantasy Upside

Cole Kmet
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – NOVEMBER 27: Cole Kmet #85 of the Chicago Bears runs the ball after a catch during an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on November 27, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Ryan Kang/Getty Images)

On the upside, Cole Kmet could continue to rise in fantasy rankings. While he hasn’t had the breakout season that some have hoped and expected, he has been a consistent and valuable piece in fantasy. In the past, Kmet was also one of the lone weapons on the Chicago offense. Now offering multiple, he will not have to deal with as much attention as he has been used to. Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and DJ Moore, last year’s team WR1, will force opposing defenses to gameplan for them before Kmet, allowing him to explode in the passing game.

Another upside to watch for is his experience. Cole Kmet has been a solid tight end in his first few years but has consistently improved each season. Coming into his 5th season, he should be prepped and ready to ball out. Though he has never been a big target in fantasy drafts, he has an upside worth taking a chance on. With his draft projection in the middle rounds, it will be up to fantasy owners to decide how much of a chance they want to take.

Kmet Fantasy Downside

On the downside, Cole Kmet could finish towards the bottom of starting fantasy tight ends. After losing the chemistry with Justin Fields, he has to rebuild another foundation with rookie Caleb Williams. Another downside is if the chemistry is not rebuilt and Kmet slides down into target #3 or #4. If this happens, Kmet’s total production will take a drastic hit and he will be a wasted risk. It is unknown how the Williams and Kmet duo will translate, but regardless it could be looked at as a possible risk for your draft.

Another downside to look at is the quarterback situation. While Williams was the 1st pick in the draft, it does not mean he will produce and play like one. It is not uncommon for a rookie quarterback to struggle, even for someone with so much hype and expectations. If Williams does struggle, Kmet will likely take a hit and drop his fantasy production increasingly. Though Williams is expected to have one of the most successful and explosive rookie seasons of all time, his possible downside could be enough to make Cole Kmet a fantasy dud.

Final Thoughts on Kmet

Players with both great upside and a terrible downside make fantasy football so fun, competitive, and most importantly, hard. Cole Kmet will undoubtedly be one of those players this season as he and the Chicago Bears attempt to emerge from the depths of being at the bottom of the pack. Will Kmet finally secure his spot among the premier tight ends in the NFL or will his struggles continue in Chicago?

The Bears had one of the best off-seasons in NFL history. After moving on from Justin Fields and replacing him with Williams, the 1st pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Chicago may have finally found their franchise quarterback. Additionally, the Bears added weapons like Allen, running back D’Andre Swift, and their other 2024 first-round pick Odunze. Chicago now features one of the possibly most explosive offenses in the league, an offense where Cole Kmet will have opportunity after opportunity to have a breakout year.

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