The QB value is shifting fast as we look ahead to the 2026 fantasy football redraft season. Breakout stars, aging veterans, scheme changes, and offseason chaos have all reshaped the early quarterback landscape: creating clear risers, surprising fallers, and plenty of debate for drafters trying to stay ahead of the curve. With fantasy boards already taking shape, it’s time to break down which signal-callers are climbing, who’s losing steam, and what it all means for your early‑season strategy.
Risers
- Trevor Lawrence
Why He’s Rising:
- Continued year‑over‑year growth, now entering his prime with elite chemistry with his WR trio.
- Jacksonville’s offense projects to be even more pass‑centric with another offseason of continuity.
- Key stat or trend: Finished 2025 with 4,007 passing yards, 29 TDs, 12 INTs, and added modest rushing value.
Fantasy Impact:
- Locked into the Tier 1–2 fringe, likely drafted in Rounds 3–5. 2025 ADP at QB21 and finished as QB6.
- Upside case: Could finish as a top‑5 QB if the Jaguars’ red‑zone efficiency spikes and he adds even a small bump in rushing TDs.
2. Brock Purdy
Why He’s Rising:
- Finally put together a mostly healthy season and flashed elite dual‑threat upside.
- Shane Steichen continues to design one of the league’s most QB‑friendly rushing schemes.
- Key stat or trend: Finished as the QB1 in the fantasy playoffs and fantasy championship (for most) in Weeks 16-17.
Fantasy Impact:
- Draft value rising into Round 4–6, depending on league scoring.
- Ceiling: Overall, QB1 is in his range if passing efficiency improves.
- Floor: Injury volatility keeps him riskier than most top‑10 QBs.
3. Drake Maye
Why He’s Rising:
- Massive second‑year leap with improved accuracy and better weapons after the Patriots invested heavily in the offense.
- Key stat or trend: Logged 4,934 passing yards, 31 TDs, 8 INTs, plus 450 rushing yards.
Fantasy Impact:
- Draft value climbing into Round 6–8 as a high‑upside dual‑threat.
- Ceiling: Top‑8 QB if rushing production holds.
- Floor: Passing inconsistency could make him matchup‑dependent.
Fallers
1. Kyler Murray
Why He’s Falling:
- Declining efficiency and loss of key offensive pieces.
- Dallas leaned more run‑heavy in 2025, limiting volume.
- Key stat or trend: Dropped from 22.1 fantasy PPG to 17.3.
Fantasy Impact:
- Expected draft slide to Rounds 10–12.
- Risk factors: Aging curve, reduced pass attempts, and fewer explosive plays.
2. Patrick Mahomes
Why He’s Falling:
- Post-injury discount, but can’t be trusted as the early-season fantasy QB starter.
- Won’t be fully healthy till late in the 2026 NFL regular season.
- Key stat or trend: Rushing attempts will likely not be the same as his early 2025 fantasy campaign.
Fantasy Impact:
- Draft value slipping to Rounds 9–11.
- Risk factors: Durability, offensive instability, and capped passing ceiling.
3. C.J. Stroud
Why He’s Falling:
- Houston’s offense regressed in explosive plays, and Stroud’s fantasy output became highly matchup‑dependent.
- Key stat or trend: Only two top‑10 QB finishes in 2025.
Fantasy Impact:
- Draft value dropping to Rounds 11–13.
- Risk factors: Low rushing floor, inconsistent production, and reliance on WR health.
Final Takeaways
Jaxson Dart stands out as the strongest value play, offering dual‑threat production without the premium cost typically attached to quarterbacks with his skill set. His blend of mobility and arm talent gives him a sturdy fantasy floor, while his price tag keeps him firmly in the mid‑round steal category. For managers looking to maximize upside without overspending draft capital, he fits the bill perfectly.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Jayden Daniels appears to be drifting into overvalued territory. His name recognition and past flashes of brilliance continue to elevate his draft position, but the fantasy ceiling no longer aligns with that level of hype. Unless he shows a significant leap, managers may find themselves paying for a version of Daniels that isn’t likely to materialize.
For those hunting value late in drafts, Tyler Shough deserves a closer look. His quiet improvement down the stretch last season hints at meaningful growth, and a Year 2 leap is well within reach. As a low‑risk, high‑upside option, he’s the kind of late‑round target who can outperform expectations and provide real depth.
Baker Mayfield, meanwhile, embodies the classic high‑risk, high‑reward profile. His talent and competitive fire give him genuine league‑winner potential when everything clicks, but his injury history injects volatility into the equation. Managers willing to embrace that uncertainty could be rewarded handsomely, or left scrambling if the risks catch up to them.
