Pete Alonso has been a household name since he broke onto the scene in 2019. That year, Pete broke the rookie home run record with 53 homers and totaled 120 RBI on his way to the NL Rookie of the Year award. He also won the Home Run Derby that year and again in 2021. Since that rookie year, he’s done nothing but rake. Pete Alonso has hit at least 37 homers in all his full seasons and currently has a career 136 OPS+.
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2023 Results
2023 Stats: BA: .217, OBP: .318, SLG: .504, OPS: .821, 46 HR, 118 RBI, 92 R, 123 H, 21 2B, 2 3B, 65 BB, 148 K, 4 SB
Alonso had the worst year of his career in 2023. The good news is that a down year for Pete Alonso is a year with 46 HR and 118 RBI. Alonso played through a hand injury in June, which hurt his performance. Expected to miss a month, Alonso returned on June 18th after a 10-day IL stint. From 6/18-7/23, Alonso had a miserable .177/.283/.363 slash. During the 28-game stretch, he had only four home runs. Alonso is a tough player, but he may have pushed his return a little too early in this case. Hopefully, 2024 can be an injury-free year for the Polar Bear.
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2024 Fantasy Outlook
2024 FantasyPros projections: BA: .247, OBP: .324, SLG: .511, OPS: .835, 40 HR, 110 RBI, 90 R, 141 H, 24 2B, 1 3B, 66 BB, 139 K, 4 SB
This is a contact year for Alonso. He avoided arbitration with the Mets and got himself a huge pay raise to the tune of over $20 million in 2024. At 29 years old, it’s hard to believe that last year’s performance was an age-related decline.
Looking at some deeper stats, it appears Alonso did get a little unlucky last year. First, his xBA per Statcast projected at .244, but he only hit .217, indicating some good plays were made on some of his batted balls. Similarly, his xSLG projected to .527, but he only slugged .504. Lastly, his xwOBA projected at a solid .370, but his actual wOBA shot down to .346. Some of these gaps may be explained by Pete’s reduced hard-hit percentage in 2023. Per Statcast, he only had a 39.9% hard-hit figure, down from a 43.3% career number and a 44.6% in ’22. While these may seem like small gaps, baseball is a game of inches, and ~10% fewer hard-hit balls could mean a lot.
The Mets lineup is in a similar place to 2023; however, a healthy Starling Marte could mean the lineup is deeper than last year. Marte in the two-hole would likely mean McNeil would hit behind Alonso. It’s a much better proposition than Mark Canha or other players who protected Pete Alonso last year.
One note about the FantasyPros projection. They believe Alonso will have 30 points more in BA but only 4 points more in OBP while having more walks. To us here at TotalApexSports, that seems simply mathematically impossible. So perhaps we take these projections with a grain of salt.
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The Bottom Line: Should You Draft Pete Alonso?
Yes, maybe not as your first or even second pick, but Pete is a player you want on your team. Pete Alonso is among the best 1B in baseball; we have him as the 4th best fantasy 1B in our rankings. FantasyPros has his average draft position as 27th overall and as the 20th best player in their expert consensus rankings. Of 1B of comparable quality, only Bryce Harper should be available in a similar pick range, but Bryce hasn’t played 140 games since 2021.
Since he entered the league, Alonso has had the most home runs and RBIs in the Majors. He is a stalwart power hitter who stays on the field and mashes. With this being a contract year, he has extra incentive to have a big season. If you can get Pete at the right spot (between 20-30 in regular leagues, closer to 50 in dynasty), you should jump on it.
About the Author
Ryan is a writer from Long Island, New York. He graduated from Boston University with a degree in English. A long-suffering Mets, Jets, and Knicks fan, he hopes to see a championship sometime this century.
